The Beta Desk · Hayloo Unchained · week of 7 October 2026
Beta measures how far a coin moves for each 1% Bitcoin moves. We split it in two. Up-capture is the beta on Bitcoin’s up days. Down-capture is the beta on its down days. The gap between them is Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax. When down-capture is the larger one, the coin gives back more on Bitcoin’s bad days than it gains on the good ones. This week three of the four major altcoins pay the tax. Which coin still charges Bitcoin for a positive asymmetry, in today’s read. And for our free subscribers, our focus coin of the week: XRP.
XRP’s flag is the only one changing state this week. Its gap to Bitcoin also moved more than any other altcoin major, from −0.20 to −0.57.
◆ FOCUS COIN · THE ONLY FLAG THAT CHANGED THIS WEEK
XRP: We Gave You This Desk’s Warning Light in September. The Damage it Signaled has Arrived
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, XRP captured 171 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, XRP gave back 228 cents. That is 1.3 times more downside than upside, and XRP has paid Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax for 15 days straight.
The two capture lines crossed on 22 September. For the 100 days before that, from 14 June, XRP caught more of Bitcoin’s upside than its downside. Since the cross, down-capture has pulled away. It rose from 1.93 to 2.28 this week. Up-capture eased from 1.73 to 1.71. XRP’s Tax gap is −0.57, its widest on the downside since December 2025.
Why the flag cleared. XRP’s flag had been on since August, on two different tests. XRP’s beta jumped more than 0.15 in 20 trading days. Then the gap shrank fast and was 0.10 smaller than 20 trading days earlier. The claring of these flags suggests a new downside, Altcoin Taxed regime for XRP. The flag came first. This was the Signal. Then the gap started growing to the downside.
The 60-day beta is 1.64: 0.59 above XRP’s Outperform line at 1.05 and 1.15 under its Extreme Outperform line at 2.79. The 30-day (1.54) and 120-day (1.44) agree. The run is 49 days, past the median Outperform run of 16 days. Outperforming happens to the upside, as well as to the downside.
Flag: clear. Stability: stable.
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The cross-section: XRP Swings Hard to the Downside
Each coin’s regime lines are custom to their own backtested history. This week every coin’s 30-, 60- and 120-day windows agree, no divergences on the board.
Bitcoin dominance
Bitcoin’s share of the whole crypto market (BTC.D) is 58.7%, and rising. Rising means two things hold at once: the level is above its 50-day average, and above where it stood three weeks ago. Both hold, barely. Rising dominance means Bitcoin is gaining share of the digital asset market.
Divergence check: none this week. The broad altcoin basket, TOTAL3ES, is Trailing Bitcoin, and dominance is rising. Both point the same way: Bitcoin is gaining market share and altcoins are losing it. For ETH, SOL and XRP, BTC.D is backdrop only. Dominance tracks the whole market, not one coin’s beta.
TOTAL3ES: Altcoins Keep Paying a Tax to Bitcoin
TOTAL3ES is the altcoin market without Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins. Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, the basket captured 110 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it gave back 147 cents. That is 1.3 times more downside than upside, and the basket has paid the Altcoin tax for 22 days straight.
The 60-day beta is 0.88, inside Trailing: 0.59 above the Decoupled line at 0.28 and 0.40 under the Outperform line at 1.27. The 30-day beta (0.84) and the 120-day beta (0.90) say Trailing too. The trailing run is 251 days old, against a median of 61 days.
Flag: clear. Stability: stable. The gap is wider than it was 20 trading days ago. The pattern that comes before Altcoins outperform Bitcoin is the gap closing toward zero. This week, the market moved the opposite way.
ETH: ETH Is the Last Altcoin Charging Bitcoin the Tax
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, ETH captured 120 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, ETH gave back 106 cents. ETH is the only coin on the board still catching more upside than downside. It has done so for 64 days straight.
Down-capture rose from 0.98 to 1.06 this week, up-capture held at 1.20. The gap fell from +0.21 to +0.13. Twenty trading days ago it was +0.37, and a fall that size trips the contraction flag. This is the third weekly read in a row with the flag on. Ethereum’s relationship to Bitcoin is changing fast.
The 60-day beta is 1.18, 0.06 under ETH’s Outperform line at 1.24. The 120-day beta crossed under that line on 3 October. With the 30-day at 0.95, all three windows now say Trailing. This Trailing run is on day 16, against a median Trailing run of 8 days.
Flag: alert. Stability: unstable. The flag is on the gap-shrinking test: the gap is 0.23 smaller than 20 trading days ago. That pattern shows up in the desk’s backtest before regime turns, in either direction. While it is on, any read more than about three weeks out is on shaky ground.
SOL: Falls Harder Than It Climbs
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, SOL captured 99 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, SOL gave back 161 cents. SOL had 1.6 times more downside than upside this week, the heftiest Altcoin tax on Hayloo’s board. SOL has paid the Altcoin Tax for 40 days straight.
Down-capture jumped from 1.40 to 1.61, and the gap widened from −0.39 to −0.62. That is its most negative reading since August 2025.
The 60-day beta is 1.19: 0.31 above SOL’s Trailing line at 0.88 and 1.03 under its Extreme Outperform line at 2.22. The 30-day (1.39) and 120-day (1.19) say Outperform too. At 932 days this is the longest Outperform run in SOL’s record. The longest before it lasted 808 days. Outperformance in beta does not pick side. A coin can outperform Bitcoin to the downside, as well as to the upside.
Flag: clear, fourth week. Stability: stable. Solana’s gap is widening, the opposite of a pattern towards charging Bitcoin the Altcoin tax.
What’s solid, what’s soft
Every coin’s 30-, 60- and 120-day windows agree on its tag.
ETH: the positive gap is 0.57 standard errors from zero and rests on 19 August, which leaves the window on 18 October. The flag is on, so reads past about three weeks are shaky.
SOL: the down-capture level leans on three days when Bitcoin barely fell. Without them it is 1.30.
The Beta Desk measures how altcoins move with Bitcoin. It does not call direction or take positions. Daily closes through 6 October 2026. Hayloo Unchained.
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