Beta is one number: when Bitcoin moves a dollar, how much does this coin move. Above one it amplifies Bitcoin’s gains, below one it lags. We measure beta over sixty days and then twice more, once on Bitcoin’s up days and once on its down days. Because a coin that catches most of the way up and gives back little of the way down is a different animal from one that does both at par.
Bitcoin paid a hefty Tax on XRP this week
For six sessions, XRP took 183cents on Bitcoin’s green days, and only gave back 80 cents on red ones.
XRP is this week’s story. It ran 33% between August 19 and August 24 while Bitcoin ran 14% over the same six sessions, and those six sessions re-rated every number on its card. At Hayloo, we held a sizeable multi-year position of spot XRP, and we decided to off-load 50% at a 500% profit.
The sixty-day beta went from 0.96 on August 18 to 1.45, the largest twenty-day move on the board, and it carried XRP from the second-lowest beta of the four to the highest. XRP caught 183 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gained and gave back 80 of every dollar Bitcoin lost, the widest split on the board by a distance.
Take those six sessions out of the window and the same sixty days give a beta of 1.14. That is the whole caution. The figures measure this week’s rally sitting inside a sixty-day window rather than a settled relationship. This is why last week’s XRP beta inspired us at Hayloo to offload 50% of our multi-year spot holdings.
On our use of AI:
We’re a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it reads the news for us, takes our strategy every week, sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is compiled by Hayloo.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine.
There’s no meter, no word count, no hour count, no token that tells you how much of us is in our work. We don’t only use AI, we also run custom scripts, we create in-house data like the Altcoin Tax, we ask questions, and we debate Hayloo’s contributions.
What survives is what we defended as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because we signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.
Ethereum
Ethereum’s beta came back down to 1.35 from 1.54, with capture of 150 cents up against 109 down, and its outperform run is 54 days old against a four-and-a-half-day median.
Solana
Solana’s beta sits at 1.06. It catches 97 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gains and gives back 91 on red days. Five weeks ago those numbers were 122 and 76 — a 46-cent edge, now down to six.
Last week Solana was still the clear beta outperformer. That asymmetry closed out in this week’s rally.
The beta read pushed us to close the long we carry against the short book, and we moved a tad early. This week’s read lets us sleep with both eyes closed.
Total3ES
The basket of altcoins without ETH or stablecoins sits at 0.84, catching 72 cents up and giving back 75 down, which is roughly par in both directions.
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