A hawkish Fed and a 13-month-high dollar drove a broad weekend risk repricing that confirmed the contraction across every lane: spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a record seventh straight negative week, Strategy’s mNAV fell below 1.0 for the first time, gold posted a fourth straight weekly decline, and crude made a four-month low even as the US and Iran traded strikes around Hormuz for two nights. The AI-capex rout lead to Friday’s S&P close below the 20-day average for the fifth consecutive day — but as a rotation, with the cap-weighted S&P barely down, the equal-weight index at a record, and money leaving chips rather than the market. Bitcoin posted a back-to-back quarterly loss and is consolidating near $59-60K below the broken dealer gamma floor and the 200-week average, with the broad-equity-breakdown catalyst the flush is gated on still absent.
The S&P 500 closed below its 20-day average for a fifth straight session on Friday as the AI-led selloff narrowed to chips
The S&P 500 closed June 26 at 7,354.02, down 0.05%, a fifth consecutive close below its 20-day average, while the Nasdaq fell 0.24% for a fifth straight losing session, per CNBC, FRED, and Yahoo Finance. The Dow slipped 0.09%, the Russell 2000 rose 0.07%, and the equal-weight S&P 500 closed at a record, with money rotating out of chipmakers and into the broader market, per CoinDesk and CNBC. Chip stocks led the decline after a New York Times report that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO to next year, citing SpaceX’s weak post-debut performance and AI-share volatility, which JPMorgan said raised concerns about the sustainability of infrastructure spending given delayed capital-markets funding, per CNBC. Citi cut its tech-stock weighting the same day, per CNBC. The S&P fell about 1.8% on the week and the Nasdaq fell 4.6%, while the Dow rose 0.6%, per CNBC.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a seventh straight negative week, the longest run on record
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $444.51 million net outflow on June 26, a seventh consecutive daily outflow that capped a seventh straight negative week, the longest weekly outflow run since the funds launched, per The Block citing SoSoValue. The week’s roughly $1.79 billion in net redemptions was the second-largest weekly outflow on record, per CoinDesk and Coinpedia. The Block said the average IBIT investor is now down about 40%, per The Block. US spot Ether ETFs also logged a seventh straight day of outflows, per SoSoValue data cited across the desk. The prior session, June 25, had seen a $692 million outflow, the sixth straight day, per blockchain data cited by CoinDesk.
Strategy’s market value fell below the value of its Bitcoin for the first time
Strategy’s mNAV, the ratio of its market value to its Bitcoin holdings, dropped below 1.0 for the first time, meaning the market now values the company at less than the roughly 843,700 coins it holds, per CoinDesk and blockchain data. The STRC preferred stock briefly hit a record low of $71.40 on June 26, about 25% below its $100 par, and the firm’s Bitcoin position carries a paper loss of roughly $13 billion, per The Block. A Monday filing would mark Strategy’s fourth straight week of buying, after a 520-coin purchase on June 22 that was its smallest recent tranche, per The Block. Michael Saylor posted a chart of the company’s roughly $50 billion stash and signaled further buying, per CoinDesk. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said Saylor’s preferred-stock funding model was financial engineering that has hurt the crypto market, pointing to STRC’s slide as evidence, per The Block and CoinDesk.
US PCE inflation accelerated to 4.1% in May, its fastest pace in three years
Headline PCE inflation accelerated to 4.1% in May, its fastest pace in three years, and the Fed raised its 2026 PCE projections, per Trading Economics and Bloomberg. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said signs of widespread inflation led him to pencil in one rate increase for this year, per Bloomberg. Markets priced about three Fed hikes for 2026, with roughly a 62% chance of the first in September and about 80% by December, per Trading Economics. The dollar index eased to about 101.1 on Friday on the in-line print but held near a 13-month high and up about 0.3% on the week, per Trading Economics. Gold traded near $4,020 to $4,040 and was down about 3% to 5% on the week, a fourth consecutive weekly decline, per Trading Economics. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned Sunday that inflation is too high while citing tentative signs of relief, per Bloomberg.
Crude oil settled at a four-month low on Friday, its first close below $70 since February
WTI crude settled June 26 at $69.23 a barrel, down 3.74% and its first close below $70 since February 27, the day before the Iran war began, while Brent settled at $71.99, down 4.34%, per CNBC. Brent fell more than 10% on the week, its largest weekly drop in a month, per Trading Economics. Saudi Arabia ramped up crude shipments and reopened Persian Gulf ports shuttered by the war, while the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar boosted supply, restoring Gulf exports to roughly 75% of pre-war levels, per Bloomberg and Trading Economics. Iraq is seeking a higher OPEC production quota to recoup wartime losses, per Trading Economics. Goldman Sachs cut its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $80 from $90 and said Gulf exports should reach pre-war levels by end-July, a month early, per Barchart. Crude recovered toward $70 on Monday after the US and Iran signaled a halt to strikes, per Trading Economics.
Bitcoin posted a back-to-back quarterly loss for the first time since 2022
Bitcoin is ending the second quarter in the red after a first-quarter loss, a back-to-back quarterly decline last seen in 2022 and a losing first half that runs against the usual pattern, per CoinDesk. The token traded near $59,200 on Sunday, holding just under $60,000 after touching a multi-year low of $58,189 on June 26, and was down about 6% on the week, per CoinDesk and CoinGecko. It sits below the 200-week moving average at $62,457, the key resistance to reclaim, per blockchain data. Ether fell about 9% on the week and the memecoins fell harder, while XRP held near $1.04 and Solana near $71 as the most resilient majors, per CoinDesk and Coinpedia. The crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 18, an extreme-fear reading and a low for the current cycle, per market data. More than $1 billion in long positions were liquidated over the selloff, per CoinGlass cited across the desk.
The US and Iran traded strikes around Hormuz for two nights before signaling a halt and Tuesday talks
The US struck Iranian sites near the Strait of Hormuz on Friday and again Saturday and Sunday, hitting Sirik and Qeshm, after Iran was blamed for a drone attack on the container ship Ever Lovely, per Al Jazeera and Reuters. Iran launched drones and missiles at US military sites in Bahrain, home to the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, and in Kuwait, and a tanker was struck in the strait, in what Reuters called the worst escalation since the interim peace deal, per Reuters and AP. Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi said the strait remains under Iranian control for 30 days, and Iran said the US strikes violated the UN Charter and the war-ending memorandum, per Al Jazeera. US equity futures climbed Sunday evening after reports the two sides stepped back from escalation, per Bloomberg. US and Iranian officials are scheduled to meet in Doha on Tuesday to discuss Hormuz, per Axios cited by Trading Economics.
The BIS named an AI bust among the top threats to global prosperity in its annual report
The Bank for International Settlements said in its annual report that an artificial-intelligence bust, inflation, and fiscal stress are among the most alarming current threats to global prosperity, per Bloomberg. Bloomberg separately reported that the week’s tech rout exposed what it called a $270 billion speculation machine and that leverage behind the US stock rally has become a growing source of unease, per Bloomberg. Former Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said lofty stock valuations are hiding risks investors should watch, especially in the labor market, per Bloomberg. The IMF said AI could fuel inflation not only through chip costs but by making consumers wealthier and more willing to spend, per Bloomberg.
Solana rose about 9% on Friday, the most resilient major token on the week
Solana rose about 9% on Friday and Solana treasury stocks climbed double digits, with Sol Strategies gaining as much as 22% to $1.20, per The Block. The move was fueled by momentum in tokenized stock trading across the Solana ecosystem, while Aave’s founder hinted at token buybacks under a new framework, per CoinDesk and The Block. Solana was the most resilient major over the week, down about 3.6% versus Bitcoin’s roughly 6% and Ether’s 9%, per CoinDesk and blockchain data. Aave rose 8.9% on Friday to lead a broad crypto-index bounce, per CoinDesk.
The BIS said stablecoins still fall short of money in its annual report
The Bank for International Settlements said in its annual report that stablecoins still fall short of money on the tests of singleness, elasticity, and integrity, and warned of risks to emerging markets, per The Block. Separately, Tether began offering bullion-backed loans against its roughly $23 billion XAUT tokenized-gold stockpile, letting holders borrow against bullion without selling, per CoinDesk. The structure mirrors Bitcoin-backed lending, per CoinDesk.
Trump threatened a 100% tariff on countries that impose digital-services taxes on US tech firms
US President Donald Trump threatened on Friday to impose a 100% tariff on all goods from any country that imposes a digital-services tax on American technology companies, per Reuters and Al Jazeera. The threat escalates pressure on European nations weighing such taxes, per Bloomberg. China said it could withstand a further deterioration or even a freeze in trade ties with the European Union, according to a CCTV-affiliated social-media account cited by Bloomberg.
OPERATIONAL/STRUCTURAL FLOOR
US announces an Israel-Lebanon framework deal; Hezbollah rejects it.Secretary of State Rubio announced a framework agreement tying a ceasefire to Hezbollah disarmament; Hezbollah chief Qassem called it a surrender and “null and void,” and Israel ordered troops to prepare for an extended stay in Lebanon while continuing strikes on the south. Geopolitical-posture texture; no pillar or invalidation hook. (Geopolitics)
Ukraine struck two Russian oil refineries over the weekend. Ukrainian drones hit refineries in Krasnodar and elsewhere, killing at least two, as Kyiv continues energy-infrastructure attacks causing fuel shortages; Putin said Russia will press on with capturing four Ukrainian regions. Oil-supply-adjacent, sub-threshold. (Geopolitics, Hard Assets)
China industrial-profit growth dipped for the first time since November, and government advisers called for a fix to the two-speed economy as AI lifts high-tech while the rest lags. China-weakness substrate feeding the deflation/devaluation frame. (Macro)
Foreign banks pulled about $640M out of Indonesia since 2024 amid Prabowo-policy risk per Bloomberg — EM capital-flight texture on the repatriation read. (Capital Flows)
China is revising gold import/export rules per Xinhua — minor regulatory texture on the yuan-as-gold-source mechanic; a 500-billion-yuan PBoC MLF operation (06-25-dated) confirms the injection cadence the digest carries. (Hard Assets, Macro)
Four Ethereum OG wallets sold 37,602 ETH after eight years, locking ~$27M after a $150M unrealized peak per The Block — large-actor move on a non-held asset. (On-Chain)
NOISE EXCLUDED TODAY
World Cup coverage in volume (Iran eliminated, Messi, England, Cape Verde, South Korea turmoil — sports). Gaza casualty strikes and West Bank settler items (humanitarian, no market read). Milei cabinet-chief resignation over corruption (EM-political, non-held). Saudi Aramco helicopter crash at Ras Tanura killing 14 (tragedy; loadings continued, no confirmed supply impact). Venezuela earthquake aid and rescues (humanitarian). Europe heatwave death toll (no market read). UK politics — Burnham devolution/war-bonds, City chancellor speculation (political-personnel). Single-company items — VW/Porsche/Volkswagen cutbacks, Adani case, Lenovo CFO, Securitize NYSE debut, Cantor Bitcoin SPAC (no structural read). DraftKings prediction-markets launch and the Polymarket CFTC probe (sector color). Base mainnet stalls, SecondFi Cardano exploit, Robinhood layoffs (crypto-industry color below threshold). Samson Mow “bottom is in” and CZ macro commentary (influencer-quote-as-news, Layer D). Greenspan retrospectives, Hacky Sack pricing (Bloomberg color).