Solana keeps amplifying Bitcoin– Hayloo's Alt Tax Week 32

Beta is how much a coin moves when Bitcoin moves a dollar: Give back more than you catch and your portfolio is paying an altcoin tax. This week, the three majors lead Bitcoin.

by Hayloo’s Beta Desk.

Beta is how much a coin moves when Bitcoin moves a dollar: above 1.00 it amplifies Bitcoin, below 1.00 it lags. The desk splits that into what a coin catches on Bitcoin’s up-days against what it gives back on the down-days, because most coins do not catch the two in equal measure. Give back more than you catch and your portfolio is paying an altcoin tax. This week, the three majors lead Bitcoin. The basket holding everything else is on par.

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◆ FOCUS COIN

XRP — every signal moved

XRP crossed back over the line, and every signal it carries moved. XRP reads Outperform on the 60-day at 1.13, eleven days into a run against a 16-day median. The 30-day went the other way. With both timeframes landing in different regimes, we expect the run to run out of gas, as it did all summer, with XRP seeking guidance (liquidity) in a dry pool of sand.

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, XRP captured 115 cents; of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it gave back 85 cents.

Where the 1.13 comes from. Cut the 60-day window in half and measure each half alone. The older thirty days come out at 1.20. The most recent thirty come out at 1.00. The last month has XRP moving with Bitcoin roughly dollar for dollar, not a regime per se.

The gap peaked at 0.57 on 7 July and has closed over the twenty-eight trading days since, to 0.30 now. A gap closing toward zero is the pattern our backtest flags ahead of regime turns in either direction. It has not closed far enough to trip anything. It is worth watching.

XRP carries four regimes in its history: Trailing holds 60.5% across thirty spells, Outperform 35.1% across twenty-nine, Decoupled 3.8% across three, and Extreme Outperform 0.6% ac

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SOL — 1.7 times more upside than downside

Solana keeps amplifying Bitcoin. Solana’s >800-day lead is 2.6 times its own 331-day median. On the 60-day it catches 122 cents of every one of Bitcoin’s up-dollars against 72 given back, so Solana currently has 1.7 times more upside than downside, charging Bitcoin a hefty Solana Tax, and there’s no change in sight.

SOL is an Outperform coin by construction: 88.0% of its five-year history, across five spells. Trailing holds 6.8% across two, Extreme Outperform 5.1% across two. Decoupled has never happened.

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ETH — the fast window pulled away

Ethereum caught 152 cents of every Bitcoin up-dollar against 121 given back, and that advantage is four days old; the day before, the numbers ran the other way. Ethereum reads Outperform on the 60-day at 1.32, thirty-four days in against a 4.5-day median run that makes this one long by its own standards. The 30-day and 60-day disagree for the first time in a month, the fast window having dropped below its 1.24 line into Trailing on August 1 while the 60-day and 120-day both still lead, and that split is what put the flag on monitor. Ethereum is doing what XRP is doing: carrying upside beta into a market that has no gas in the tank.

ETH carries two regimes only. Trailing holds 78.0% of its history across twenty-five spells and Outperform 22.0% across twenty-four. Neither Decoupled nor Extreme Outperform has ever occurred. The current 34-day spell is long by ETH’s standards, against a 4.5-day median Outperform run.

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TOTAL3ES — altcoins excluding stablecoins

The basket is still behind, 188 days in, but only by a hair. TOTAL3ES, altcoins excluding stablecoins, ethereum or bitcoin, has read Trailing for 188 consecutive days against a 61-day median. However, the 60-day beta that sets the tag is 0.99, just under one-for-one and well under the 1.27 line that would make the altcoin basket outperform Bitcoin’s moves.

TOTAL3ES caught 108 cents of every up-dollar and gave back 74, which is 1.4 times more upside than downside and the rarer side of the split on this basket. Trailing is simply where this basket is used to hang out: 76.9% of nine years of daily observations, but we’re witnessing a slow regime change, shifting capital away from bitcoin to alts.

Trailing is where this basket lives: 76.9% of nine years of daily observations, across twenty-four separate spells. Outperform holds 21.1% across twenty-two spells. Decoupled has happened once, for sixty-four days in total. At 188 days the current spell is already past the 61-day median Trailing run.

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What’s solid, what’s soft

Solid. The 60-day betas across all four coins. The regime tags, which come from boundaries fitted on each coin’s full history. The direction of every asymmetry gap.

Soft. The size of the up-capture and down-capture numbers. The standard errors run from 12% of the estimate on ETH’s down-capture to 29% on SOL’s up-capture, and SOL’s are the widest on the desk this week — wide enough that the 1.22 should be read as a range, not a point.

Softer still. Anything resting on a thin count of historical episodes. XRP’s Extreme Outperform regime rests on two episodes and its Decoupled on three. The basket’s Decoupled regime rests on one. SOL’s Trailing and Extreme Outperform rest on two each.

Horizons. XRP and ETH are both moving fast enough that any read beyond about three weeks is on shaky ground. TOTAL3ES and SOL are steady and today’s read holds out to the usual horizon.

Underneath. Nine years of daily closes for the basket (3,308 observations) and XRP (3,487), eight for ETH (3,138), five for SOL (1,874). Turning-point catalogues of 128, 113, 78 and 60 events. Small-sample medians throughout; not bootstrap-robust.

The Beta Desk measures the relationship between Bitcoin and everything else. It does not forecast direction and it does not take positions.