When the week closed on Sunday, October 11, Bitcoin settled at $83,687.50, down 3.24% on the week. One week earlier it had settled at $86,511, and we wrote that the break would fail inside four weeks. The prediction came to fruition in only one week. Hayloo is short 929.2 Bitcoin.
Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost more than $600 million last week, and the Ether funds sold on nine straight days. Holders kept booking profit as crypto fell: on October 10, with price already 3% off its high, the coins that moved still sold at a profit.
The band that argued hardest against us last week, the densest Bitcoin supply in five years on Glassnode’s supply heatmap, is now above price instead of below it. Bitcoin’s drop last week was only 3%. The amount of coins that are looking at a red Bitcoin number today, however, is much higher. Our lead trader says, the tides have turned. The bears are in control. Our team still splits on Jordi’s read, and both sides argue it below.
The MOVE index (the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate), the price traders pay to protect against swings in U.S. Treasury bonds, closed a third straight week above its 200-week line, so the risk-off trigger we named stands.
On our use of AI:
We’re Hayloo Unchained by JFederer, a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is published by Hayloo INC., our AI startup in Panama. It is compiled by Hayloo and approved by us.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine. What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC. hayloo.org
Our book is short Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. People behind Hayloo may hold any coin discussed here, in either direction. Nothing here is advice to buy or sell.