Hayloo’s Beta Desk — September 28, 2026.
On September 21 Bitcoin rose 6.5% and Ether rose 4.8%. Ether’s holders made money that day. Measured against Bitcoin, they caught about three-quarters of the move.
The Altcoin Tax is what a coin catches when Bitcoin rises against what it hands back when Bitcoin falls. We measure the major altcoin’s beta, how far a coin moves for each 1% Bitcoin moves. Hayloo’s Beta Desk reads beta over 30, 60, and 120 days of daily moves, and splits the 60-day read by direction. For Ether, 1.24 is the line its own history backtest draws between leading Bitcoin and trailing it.
September 21 pulled Ether’s 60-day beta from 1.27 to 1.20, under the line. Ether had led Bitcoin since July 2, for 81 days.
Hayloo has money on this. Last Thursday we set the test for our Ether short: a second week of the 30-day beta under 1.24, with the 60-day following it down. The 30-day now reads 1.00 and the 60-day reads 1.19. Both are under the line, and the 120-day is the only window still above it. We’re happy with our short position.
Ethereum’s trailing tag is seven days old, and it rests on September 21. Without that session, Ether’s 60-day beta would still read 1.26, narrowly inside the lead. The same day lit Ether’s warning flag. It cut up-capture, what Ether catches when Bitcoin rises, from 1.30 to 1.18. The gap between catching and handing back fell to +0.20 on September 24 before closing the week at +0.21. Twenty trading days earlier Ethereum lead with +0.38. Down-capture, what Ether hands back when Bitcoin falls, held near 0.98 the whole time, so Ethereum’s upside is shutting down.
Ether is still on the good side of the tax, and it has stayed there since August 4, for 55 days. One August session holds it there. On August 19 Ether rose 16.1% while Bitcoin rose 6.9%. Take that day out and Ether’s up-capture reads 0.86, its gap turns to −0.13, and its 120-day beta reads 1.14, which is trailing. A warm day doesn’t make for a good fall. Ethereum’s up-day will leave the 60-day window on October 18.
Ether has spent 78.0% of its recorded history trailing Bitcoin and 22.0% leading it, with no other regime in its record.
This week major altcoins proved to be more volatile when Bitcoin barely moved. Take these quiet days out of the equation, and some of the week’s altcoin tax bills disappear. Below you will read which of the major altcoins still pay the altcoin tax, and if we traded these signals this week.
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The Cross-Section: Three of Four Now Pay the Altcoin Tax
Three of the four major altcoins the Beta Desk reads now pay the tax: Solana, XRP, and the altcoin market without Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins. Ether is the only one left on the good side of the line, which sits at zero.
Clean out Bitcoin’s flat days from this week and XRP’s tax disappears. On September 22, 24, and 25 Bitcoin dipped less than half a percent and XRP rose more than 2%. Take those three days out and XRP’s down-capture, what it hands back when Bitcoin falls, reads 1.68. Its up-capture, what it catches when Bitcoin rises, reads 1.73, so buys itself another week on the good side - one eye closed.
Solana’s tax does not survive the same cleaning. Even with this week’s two flat Bitcoin days out, Solana hands back 119 cents of every dollar Bitcoin loses and catches 100 of every dollar Bitcoin gains. We doubled our Solana short at $120.
Solana: The Tax Holds
This week Solana caught 100 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gained and handed back 140 cents of every dollar Bitcoin lost. Last week’s read had it at 104 caught and 117 handed back. It has sat on the costly side of the line for 31 days straight.
Solana’s down-capture rose from 1.17 to 1.40 this week, and the two quiet days wrote most of that rise. Without them it reads 1.19.
Solana’s 60-day beta is 1.18, and all three windows read leading: 1.31 over 30 days and 1.23 over 120. The line down to trailing sits at 0.88, 0.30 below. Solana has led Bitcoin for 88.0% of its recorded history. Its current run as a leader has lasted 923 days, when the median run lasts 331. The regime is stable and the flag is clear. The gap, however, widened to −0.39. Which is why this desk doubled down on a short position on Solana this week.
XRP: The Flip Rests on Four Days
On September 9 we wrote that XRP’s edge had a maturity date. On September 22 XRP’s gap crossed zero, the first time since June 13, and that ended 100 days on the good side. XRP now catches 173 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gains and hands back 193 cents of every dollar Bitcoin loses, 1.1 times as much, and it has been on the costly side for six days running.
Down-capture did XRP’s moving. It rose from 1.63 to 1.93 while up-capture eased from 1.77 to 1.73. This week’s three flat Bitcoin days carried most of it, and one real selloff carried the rest. On September 15 Bitcoin fell 3.4% and XRP fell 10.4%, and without that day alone down-capture reads 1.42. Remove either the flat days or that selloff, and XRP is back on the good side of the tax. But XRP’s flag is lit for the third week running, on a shrinking gap. We sold our remaining 10 million XRP into this rally, and we are waiting in cash.
XRP carries the highest 60-day beta on the board at 1.62, and all three windows read leading: 1.58 over 30 days and 1.37 over 120. The line down to trailing sits at 1.05, 0.57 below. XRP has led Bitcoin for 35.1% of its history, with a median run of 16 days, so its current 40-day run is long for XRP. XRP is the only major altcoin we measure whose history holds four regimes, with stretches of moving independently of Bitcoin and two episodes of extreme outperformance.
The Altcoin Market: The Widest Tax Sits on the Noisiest Numbers
The altcoin market without Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins caught 85 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gained and handed back 147 cents of every dollar Bitcoin lost. That is 1.7 times as much on the way down, 13 days straight. Down-capture jumped from 1.18 to 1.47, its highest since December 2025, and the gap widened from −0.32 to −0.62. But these are also the noisiest numbers on the board.
The 60-day beta is 0.91, the only series on the board below one, and all three windows read trailing: 1.02 over 30 days and 0.94 over 120. The line up to leading sits at 1.27, 0.36 above. The altcoin market has trailed Bitcoin for 76.9% of its history with a median run of 61 days, so its current 242-day run is long. The regime is stable and the flag is clear, and the widening gap is the opposite of the narrowing that has come before past market turns.
Bitcoin’s share of the whole crypto market reads 58.7% and is flat. It sits above its 50-day average of 58.3% and below its 150-day average of 59.0%.
What’s Solid, What’s Soft: Single Days Carry the Week’s Biggest Calls
Solana’s gap is the one tax on the board that clears its own error. This week’s biggest calls rest on single sessions. Ether’s trailing tag is seven days old and rests on September 21, and its 120-day beta sits 0.002 above the line. Ether’s positive gap rests on August 19. XRP’s flip to the costly side rests on September 15. Much of the widening down-capture on Solana, XRP, and the altcoin market came from days when Bitcoin barely moved.
The Beta Desk measures the relationship between each coin and Bitcoin. It does not forecast direction.
Our book is short Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. People behind Hayloo may hold any coin discussed here, in either direction. Nothing here is advice to buy or sell.
The Beta Desk’s readings behind this post are being packaged for use with your proprietary AI-System. Join the waitlist.
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