The Beta Desk · Hayloo Unchained · week of 2026-11-02
How to read the Altcoin Tax™
Every week Hayloo measures how the major altcoins move against Bitcoin. Beta is the simple version: how far a coin tends to move when Bitcoin moves. Up-capture is the share of Bitcoin’s gains a coin keeps on Bitcoin’s up days. Down-capture is the share of Bitcoin’s losses it gives back on Bitcoin’s down days.
The gap between those two is Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax™. When a coin gives back more on the way down than it collects on the way up, it pays the tax. When it collects more than it gives back, it charges Bitcoin the tax instead.
The regime tag says how hard a coin swings against Bitcoin. High Beta means it swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions, not that it is winning. The flag fires on a fast move in the beta, a gap closing toward zero, a change of regime, or fast and slow windows that disagree. These are signals we trade. Stability says how far out our read holds.
This week 10 of the 12 major altcoins pay the tax. Which coins charge Bitcoin Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax™ instead is in this week’s paid read.
The free focus coin of the week is Tron (TRX). Its 60-day beta fell from 0.10 to -0.08 this week, and Tron no longer moves with Bitcoin at all.
On October 29, Tron was used to swap Tether’s dollars stolen from Binance into TRX, which no issuer can freeze. Then the attackers sold TRX to bridge out. That move printed a price jump on theft day, followed by two heavy down days after the attackers sold TRX. Enough to decouple from the broader market’s moves.
The source for this swap shows up in this week’s Altcoin Tax™ read below. The hackers’ laundering on Tron will remain in Tron’s beta read until 27 December. Until it drops out, the hack keeps pulling Tron’s betas toward zero. We did the math, and took out 29 October of Tron’s beta. It went straight back to where it was before Tron was used to launder stolen funds from Binance.
◆ FOCUS COIN · TRX flipped from Low Beta to Decoupled
TRX: Climbs When Bitcoin Falls
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, TRX captured 24 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, TRX gave back nothing and gained 52 cents instead. That puts TRX on the side that charges Bitcoin the Altcoin Tax™, with a Tax gap of +0.76, up from +0.07 a week ago. The change came on the down side: down-capture went from 0.13 to -0.52 this week, while up-capture barely moved. TRX has carried more of Bitcoin’s upside than its downside for 5 days straight, since the Binance hack.
TRX’s 60-day beta fell from 0.10 to -0.08 this week and crossed the 0.00 line on 31 October, so its regime moved from Low Beta to Decoupled. Decoupled means its moves no longer track Bitcoin’s.
The 30-day beta of -0.41 agrees; the 120-day beta of 0.09 still reads Low Beta. TRX has been Decoupled five times before, never for longer than 15 days, and this spell is 3 days old. It will leave the window on December 27, 2026.
Flag: ALERT · Stability: BREAKING. One condition fired: the 60-day beta moved 0.24 in 20 trading days, from 0.15 to -0.08. Stability reads Breaking because TRX changed regime this week, and any read of it more than about three weeks out is on shaky ground.
On our use of AI:
We’re a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is compiled by Hayloo and approved by us. It’s published by Hayloo Unchained INC., our latest AI startup in Panama.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine. What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.
In this week’s Alttax read: Hayloo’s board with the Altcoin Tax™ for every major altcoin to the cent, and the one other major altcoin that charges Bitcoin the tax this week. Subscribe to receive Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax every week.
Where we go from here
The twelve coins in today’s Tape bring long price histories to Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax™ board, and we have backtested our read on each of them. Each is a heavily capitalized coin, and each now trades in an exchange-traded fund, so traditional finance already recognizes it.
Many other coins also solve real problems and create value. We are widening the Altcoin Tax™ read to hundreds of them. Their price histories are shorter than Bitcoin’s, but they deserve a seat at the table.
Next week the read moves to its own subpage, where you can open Crypto’s Beta to Bitcoin, with up- and down-capture, any day. The numbers on it update daily.