It’s happy hour on oil, and the bond market has been at the bar since October 30. Cheaper crude paid for every basis point the ten-year Treasury yield gave up, while prices ran hot and central banks kept hiking. So who gets the check when the discount runs out?
In today’s Macro Tape, we follow the tab around the room, from the bartenders to the bouncer to the top shelf. Nobody is pouring liquidity into financial markets, and America is drinking on credit.
The U.S. presidency got the bill for the war at the voting booth, while the Strait of Hormuz kept its bouncer and a guest list. For all its 11.29% drop in a week, U.S. crude still costs more than usual.
The artificial intelligence (AI) trade woke up with an election hangover, and the hair of the dog didn’t work. Up on the top shelf, an ounce of gold buys 46.89 barrels of oil, and one Bitcoin no longer buys the 20 ounces our framework treats as the start of a Bitcoin bull market.
This and our weekly Macro Board in today’s Macro Tape for week 46.
On our use of AI:
We’re Hayloo Unchained by JFederer, a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is published by Hayloo INC., our AI startup in Panama. It is compiled by Hayloo and approved by us.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine. What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC. hayloo.org
Our book is short Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. People behind Hayloo may hold any asset discussed here, in either direction. Nothing here is advice to buy or sell.