Last week the world got $0.88 trillion more collateral to borrow against and still walked away with less money. Total global liquidity fell for a fourth straight week, and lenders stacked less cash on top of every dollar of collateral. We read the drop as lenders beginning to ask for bigger security deposits.
The artificial intelligence (AI) trade runs on that borrowed money. One bank is buying default insurance on more than $10 billion of data-center loans, and the S&P 500 is down to its last rising line.
The S&P 500’s lead over that last rising line is shrinking fast, and our call that the liquidity cycle has turned stands. Further down the Macro Tape, gold has closed two straight weeks under $4,000 with Chinese money behind it flowing again, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) turns out to be running quantitative easing in all but name.
On our use of AI:
We’re Hayloo Unchained by JFederer, a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is published by Hayloo INC., our AI startup in Panama. It is compiled by Hayloo and approved by us.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine. What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC. hayloo.org
Our book is short Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. People behind Hayloo may hold any asset discussed here, in either direction. Nothing here is advice to buy or sell.