On November 6, the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) moved to cut the crypto exchange MEXC off from the U.S. financial system, alleging at least $16 billion tied to sanctions evasion by Iran, North Korea, and Russia, CoinDesk and The Block reported. No withdrawal halt had been reported by November 9.
Bitcoin closed the week to November 8 at $74,740, and it now looks up at the cluster it stood on. That leaves it 1.18% under the $75,633 this year’s buyers paid on average, and 1.37% under the short-term holders’ cost of $75,776 on Glassnode’s data, the average paid by everyone who bought in the last five months. It also sits 3.70% under the True Market Mean of $77,613, the average price paid by investors still active in the market.
A week ago we said that cluster would give way within four to twelve weeks. It went in the first week, and it was loud about it: by CoinGlass’s count, spot trading across six big exchanges came to $25.19 billion in the week, the most in eight weeks.
Today we reveal who did the selling and mark this week’s levels to watch. We inspect the major altcoins on-chain and follow the money of the spot buyers and the gamblers to estimate where Bitcoin and the alts move next.
Next door, the bond market is calming down, and we open a debate over whether that calm is enough to pipe more liquidity into distressed risk assets like Bitcoin and crypto. As for us, our short book has paid off since we called a local top at $87,000, and it pays double: we collect rent from crowded long positions at an annualized 14% yield. We also debate whether to close our shorts, add a long hedge, or let it ride. All of this sits, including our weekly Watchlist, under one roof in today’s Tape, as always. Thank you for reading.
On our use of AI:
We’re Hayloo Unchained by JFederer, a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is compiled by Hayloo and approved by us. It’s published by Hayloo INC., our latest AI startup in Panama.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine. What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC. hayloo.org
People behind Hayloo may hold any coin discussed here, in either direction. Nothing here is advice to buy or sell.