The Beta Desk · Hayloo Unchained · week of 2026-11-09
Beta measures how hard a coin moves when Bitcoin moves. Up-capture is how much of each dollar Bitcoin gains a coin keeps. Down-capture is how much of each dollar Bitcoin loses the coin gives back. When a coin gives back more on the way down than it keeps on the way up, the difference is Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax™.
Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax™ Turns Into a Daily Surf Report
So far, we’ve run a weekly read on the 13 crypto projects that institutions trade through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Some coins, like Solana, traditionally carry a high beta to Bitcoin. When Bitcoin climbs, they climb harder. When it falls, they fall harder.
The signal we watch is the rate of change in a coin’s beta, set against its own history.
That high beta is one finding of Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax™, but it isn’t the signal. The signal we watch is the rate of change in a coin’s beta, set against its own history. A coin’s beta often shifts before its price action does. The Altcoin Tax™ ranks its coins by that signal. The 13 institutionally traded coins lead the list, sorted by divergence. Behind them come the other 100, sorted by how far each has diverged from its own mean.
The only thing the Altcoin Tax™ won’t say is which way the price breaks from the norm. That call is yours. Here’s how we make ours.
Altcoin Tax™ signals are one part of the strategy that has kept us alive through the highs and lows of multiple Bitcoin cycles.
Altcoin Tax™ signals are one part of the strategy that has kept us alive through the highs and lows of multiple Bitcoin cycles. We like to call it surfing. We spot a swell of liquidity and paddle into position. When the wave hits, we read the on-chain flows to see which way it will carry us. Then we ride it until the hard-asset ratios tell us to get out.
October 2025 is a good example of that read. In dollars, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high. Priced in gold, it fell short of one, so we sold our holdings that month.
Hayloo, the neurosymbolic compound AI system we built for you to use, is nearly done. We’ve teased it a couple of times, and we’re in the last steps of making it available. So we’re stepping back from the code and stepping in as mentors. Future posts won’t stop at our in-house liquidity, on-chain, and beta reads. They’ll show the strategies we apply to them, the same strategies we taught an AI to follow without drift. It took us three wipeouts to get there.
This week we take another step in that direction and roll out the new Altcoin Tax™ read. Starting now, it updates every day, like a surf report.
Until the week is out, every Substack reader gets it free. After that, it’s for paid subscribers, who can check the daily Altcoin Tax™ read any time, with live daily closing prices.
The lineup leaves out every coin that never makes a desk list: stablecoins, deposit receipts, pool shares, tokenized funds or loans, and any staked, wrapped, bridged, or pegged copy of another coin.
Every week we name a Free Focus Coin, the coin that broke hardest from its own history in the past week. This week that’s Injective (INJ). Its Altcoin Tax™ moved 5.8 times as far as it does in a usual week, and on Bitcoin’s down days its giveback went from $2.82 to $1.70 for every dollar Bitcoin lost.
◆ FOCUS COIN · Injective (INJ’s) Altcoin Tax™ moved 5.8 times its usual week
Injective (INJ) Broke Hardest From Its Own History
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, INJ captured 89 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, INJ gave back 170 cents. That is 1.9× more downside than upside, and INJ has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 56 days straight. Down-capture did most of the week’s work, falling from 2.82 to 1.70, all of it from this week’s own trading. Up-capture rose from 0.64 to 0.89. Together these narrowed the Tax gap from -2.18 to -0.81, a move 5.8 times the size of INJ’s usual week.
INJ has been High Beta for 121 days. High Beta means the coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions. Its 60-day beta fell from 1.83 to 1.66 this week. The windows agree: INJ is High Beta on the 30-, 60- and 120-day windows.
Flag: CLEAR · Stability: STABLE. No flag condition fired this week, and last week’s flag has cleared. The relationship is steady.
On our use of AI:
We’re a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is compiled by Hayloo and approved by us. It’s published by Hayloo Unchained INC., our latest AI startup in Panama.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine. What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.
The cross-section: 114 Crypto Projects and Their 60-Day Beta
Bitcoin dominance
Bitcoin dominance stands at 59.74% and is rising. It peaked at 60.24% on 2026-11-08 and now sits 0.50 points under that peak, 1 day on. It is above both its 50-day average of 59.16% and its 150-day average of 58.75%. Rising dominance means Bitcoin is gaining share of the whole market, and altcoins are ceding it.
For Hayloo’s Altcoin Basket: Rising dominance and the High Beta altcoin regime point opposite ways. Hayloo’s desk flags the disagreement; you get to decide what to do with it.
Tron (TRX)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, TRX captured 20 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, TRX gave back -32 cents, which means it tended to move the other way on Bitcoin’s down days. For 12 days straight, TRX has carried more of Bitcoin’s upside than its downside, so it charges Bitcoin the Altcoin Tax™. The week’s real move was in down-capture, which went from -0.52 to -0.32. That pulled the Tax gap in from +0.76 to +0.52, off its peak of +0.78 on 2026-11-01. The 60-day beta and up-capture each shifted by less than 0.05.
TRX has been Decoupled for 10 days, which dates back to the Binance hack, when the thieves laundered USDT by swapping it to Tron, and selling TRX.This week’s narrowing on Bitcoin’s down days is a first step back to normalcy for TRX.
Flag: ALERT · Stability: UNSTABLE. One of the flag’s two conditions fired: the 60-day beta moved -0.17 in 20 trading days, from 0.11 to -0.05. The stability reading says the Bitcoin–TRX relationship is shifting.
Binance Coin (BNB)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, BNB captured 46 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, BNB gave back 114 cents. That is 2.5× more downside than upside, and BNB has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 41 days straight. The Tax gap narrowed from -0.85 last week to -0.68. Up-capture rose from 0.35 to 0.46, and down-capture fell from 1.21 to 1.14. The gap is still negative, and it is wider than it was 20 days ago, when it stood at -0.25. The 60-day beta barely moved.
Flag: CLEAR · Stability: STABLE. BNB has been Low Beta for 334 days. No flag condition fired this week, and last week’s flag has cleared. The 60-day beta moved +0.09 in 20 trading days, and the stability reading raised no warning.
Hedera (HBAR)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, HBAR captured 136 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, HBAR gave back 217 cents. That is 1.6× more downside than upside, and HBAR has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 49 days straight. Up-capture went from 1.30 to 1.36. Down-capture fell from 2.30 to 2.17 on this week’s own trading. The Tax gap narrowed from -0.99 to -0.81, but down-capture still sits well above up-capture, so the narrowing does not remove the asymmetry.
Flag: CLEAR · Stability: STABLE. HBAR has been High Beta for 33 days. High Beta means the coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions. No flag condition fired this week. The relationship is steady.
Ethereum (ETH)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, ETH captured 98 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, ETH gave back 133 cents. That is 1.4× more downside than upside, and ETH has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 33 days straight. ETH moved harder with Bitcoin in both directions this week: up-capture rose from 0.85 to 0.98, and down-capture rose from 1.19 to 1.33. Because both sides rose together, the Tax gap barely changed, going from -0.34 to -0.35.
ETH has been Low Beta for 50 days. Its 60-day beta rose from 1.06 to 1.19t. The windows disagree. The 30-day window reads High Beta, where a coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions, while the 60-day window reads Low Beta.
Flag: ALERT · Stability: UNSTABLE. One of the flag’s two conditions fired: the 30-day and 60-day windows landed in different regimes, so the fast and slow windows disagree on where ETH sits against Bitcoin. The stability reading says the relationship is shifting.
Hayloo’s Altcoin Basket
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, Hayloo’s Altcoin Basket captured 73 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it gave back 157 cents. That is 2.2× more downside than upside, and the basket has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 50 days straight. The move this week was in down-capture, which fell from 1.72 to 1.57. Up-capture held at 0.73. Together these narrowed the Tax gap from -1.00 to -0.84, five days after its widest point of -1.06 on 2026-11-04. The gap is still negative.
Hayloo’s Altcoin Basket has been High Beta for 32 days. High Beta means the basket swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions. The windows agree: the basket is High Beta on the 30-, 60- and 120-day windows.
Flag: CLEAR · Stability: STABLE. No flag condition fired this week, and last week’s flag has cleared. The relationship is steady.
Litecoin (LTC)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, LTC captured 70 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, LTC gave back 173 cents. That is 2.5× more downside than upside, and LTC has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 34 days straight. Up-capture went from 0.59 to 0.70, and down-capture went from 1.60 to 1.73. The Tax gap barely moved, going from -1.01 to -1.03.
LTC has been Low Beta for 336 days. Its 60-day beta rose from 1.19 to 1.25, mostly on this week’s own trading, and now sits near the top of Low Beta. The windows disagree. The 30-day window reads High Beta, where a coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions, while the 60-day window reads Low Beta.
Flag: ALERT · Stability: BREAKING. Both of the flag’s conditions fired. The 30-day and 60-day windows landed in different regimes, and the 60-day beta moved +0.30 in 20 trading days, from 0.95 to 1.25. The stability reading says the relationship is shifting.
Avalanche (AVAX)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, AVAX captured 6 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, AVAX gave back 207 cents. That is 35.4× more downside than upside, and AVAX has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 52 days straight. This week’s move was in down-capture, which fell from 2.38 to 2.07. The Tax gap came in from -2.37 last week, off its widest point of -2.40 on 2026-11-03. This is a smaller downside reading, not a balanced one: down-capture still sits above 2, and the gap is still negative.
Flag: CLEAR · Stability: STABLE. AVAX has been High Beta for 33 days. High Beta means the coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions. No flag condition fired this week. The relationship is steady.
Chainlink (LINK)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, LINK captured 84 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, LINK gave back 179 cents. That is 2.1× more downside than upside, and LINK has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 56 days straight. Up-capture went from 0.72 to 0.84. Down-capture eased from 1.85 to 1.79. The Tax gap narrowed from -1.13 last week to -0.95, after its recent widest point of -1.15 on 2026-11-03.
Flag: CLEAR · Stability: STABLE. No flag condition fired this week. The relationship is steady.
Solana (SOL)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, SOL captured 128 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, SOL gave back 156 cents. That is 1.2× more downside than upside, and SOL has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 74 days straight. The move this week was in down-capture, which fell from 1.67 to 1.56.
Flag: CLEAR · Stability: STABLE. SOL has been High Beta for 966 days. High Beta means the coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions. Its 60-day beta eased from 1.38 to 1.32. No flag condition fired this week, and this week’s stability reading raised no warning.
ZCash (ZEC)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, ZEC captured 41 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, ZEC gave back 173 cents. That is 4.2× more downside than upside, and ZEC has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 50 days straight. Down-capture did most of the week’s work, falling from 2.94 to 1.73, mostly on this week’s own trading. Up-capture rose from 0.04 to 0.41. The Tax gap narrowed from -2.91 to -1.33, days after its widest point of -3.15 on 2026-11-03.
ZEC has been High Beta for 156 days. High Beta means the coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions. Its 60-day beta fell from 1.67 to 1.38.The windows agree: ZEC is still High Beta on the 30-, 60- and 120-day windows.
Flag: MONITOR · Stability: UNSTABLE. One of the flag’s two conditions fired: the 60-day beta moved -0.20 in 20 trading days, from 1.58 to 1.38.
XRP
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, XRP captured 134 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, XRP gave back 180 cents. That is 1.3× more downside than upside, and XRP has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 49 days straight. The move this week was in down-capture, which fell from 2.06 to 1.80. Up-capture slipped from 1.41 to 1.34. Down-capture fell harder, so the Tax gap closed from -0.65 to -0.46. The gap is still negative: this is a narrower asymmetry, not a change of regime.
XRP has been High Beta for 83 days. High Beta means the coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions. Its 60-day beta eased from 1.49 to 1.42. Its 30-day beta sits at 1.22, below the 60-day figure.
Flag: CLEAR · Stability: STABLE. No flag condition fired this week, and last week’s flag has cleared. The stability reading raised no warning.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, DOGE captured 155 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, DOGE gave back 161 cents. The Tax gap flipped from +0.02 last week to -0.06, and DOGE has now paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 2 days.
Flag: CLEAR · Stability: STABLE. DOGE has been High Beta for 68 days. High Beta means the coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions. Its 60-day beta fell from 1.57 to 1.50. No flag condition fired, and the Tax gap held near -0.06. The stability reading raised no warning.
Near Protocol (NEAR)
Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, NEAR captured 70 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, NEAR gave back 279 cents. That is 4.0× more downside than upside, and NEAR has paid the Altcoin Tax™ for 62 days straight. The move this week was in down-capture, which fell from 3.24 to 2.79. Up-capture rose from 0.65 to 0.70. The Tax gap narrowed from -2.59 to -2.09, after reaching its widest point of -2.95 on 2026-11-04. That does not close the asymmetry: the gap is still negative.
Flag: ALERT · Stability: UNSTABLE. NEAR has been High Beta for 102 days. High Beta means the coin swings harder than Bitcoin in both directions. One of the flag’s two conditions fired: the 60-day beta moved +0.44 in 20 trading days, from 1.55 to 1.99. The stability reading says the Bitcoin–NEAR relationship is shifting.
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The Beta Desk · Hayloo Unchained. Measurement, not advice.