Hayloo INC.: Hayloo's Altcoin Tax

XRP's Losses Keep Growing – Hayloo's Altcoin Tax Week 41

Hayloo INC. — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:47:45 GMT

The Beta Desk · Hayloo Unchained · week of 7 October 2026

Beta measures how far a coin moves for each 1% Bitcoin moves. We split it in two. Up-capture is the beta on Bitcoin’s up days. Down-capture is the beta on its down days. The gap between them is Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax. When down-capture is the larger one, the coin gives back more on Bitcoin’s bad days than it gains on the good ones. This week three of the four major altcoins pay the tax. Which coin still charges Bitcoin for a positive asymmetry, in today’s read. And for our free subscribers, our focus coin of the week: XRP.

XRP’s flag is the only one changing state this week. Its gap to Bitcoin also moved more than any other altcoin major, from −0.20 to −0.57.

◆ FOCUS COIN · THE ONLY FLAG THAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

XRP: We Gave You This Desk’s Warning Light in September. The Damage it Signaled has Arrived

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, XRP captured 171 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, XRP gave back 228 cents. That is 1.3 times more downside than upside, and XRP has paid Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax for 15 days straight.

The two capture lines crossed on 22 September. For the 100 days before that, from 14 June, XRP caught more of Bitcoin’s upside than its downside. Since the cross, down-capture has pulled away. It rose from 1.93 to 2.28 this week. Up-capture eased from 1.73 to 1.71. XRP’s Tax gap is −0.57, its widest on the downside since December 2025.

Why the flag cleared. XRP’s flag had been on since August, on two different tests. XRP’s beta jumped more than 0.15 in 20 trading days. Then the gap shrank fast and was 0.10 smaller than 20 trading days earlier. The claring of these flags suggests a new downside, Altcoin Taxed regime for XRP. The flag came first. This was the Signal. Then the gap started growing to the downside.

The 60-day beta is 1.64: 0.59 above XRP’s Outperform line at 1.05 and 1.15 under its Extreme Outperform line at 2.79. The 30-day (1.54) and 120-day (1.44) agree. The run is 49 days, past the median Outperform run of 16 days. Outperforming happens to the upside, as well as to the downside.

Flag: clear. Stability: stable.

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On our use of AI:
We’re a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is compiled by Hayloo and approved by us.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine. What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.

Our book is short Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. People behind Hayloo may hold any asset discussed here, in either direction. Nothing here is advice to buy or sell.

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The cross-section: XRP Swings Hard to the Downside

Each coin’s regime lines are custom to their own backtested history. This week every coin’s 30-, 60- and 120-day windows agree, no divergences on the board.

Bitcoin dominance

Bitcoin’s share of the whole crypto market (BTC.D) is 58.7%, and rising. Rising means two things hold at once: the level is above its 50-day average, and above where it stood three weeks ago. Both hold, barely. Rising dominance means Bitcoin is gaining share of the digital asset market.

Divergence check: none this week. The broad altcoin basket, TOTAL3ES, is Trailing Bitcoin, and dominance is rising. Both point the same way: Bitcoin is gaining market share and altcoins are losing it. For ETH, SOL and XRP, BTC.D is backdrop only. Dominance tracks the whole market, not one coin’s beta.

TOTAL3ES: Altcoins Keep Paying a Tax to Bitcoin

TOTAL3ES is the altcoin market without Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins. Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, the basket captured 110 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it gave back 147 cents. That is 1.3 times more downside than upside, and the basket has paid the Altcoin tax for 22 days straight.

The 60-day beta is 0.88, inside Trailing: 0.59 above the Decoupled line at 0.28 and 0.40 under the Outperform line at 1.27. The 30-day beta (0.84) and the 120-day beta (0.90) say Trailing too. The trailing run is 251 days old, against a median of 61 days.

Flag: clear. Stability: stable. The gap is wider than it was 20 trading days ago. The pattern that comes before Altcoins outperform Bitcoin is the gap closing toward zero. This week, the market moved the opposite way.

ETH: ETH Is the Last Altcoin Charging Bitcoin the Tax

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, ETH captured 120 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, ETH gave back 106 cents. ETH is the only coin on the board still catching more upside than downside. It has done so for 64 days straight.

Down-capture rose from 0.98 to 1.06 this week, up-capture held at 1.20. The gap fell from +0.21 to +0.13. Twenty trading days ago it was +0.37, and a fall that size trips the contraction flag. This is the third weekly read in a row with the flag on. Ethereum’s relationship to Bitcoin is changing fast.

The 60-day beta is 1.18, 0.06 under ETH’s Outperform line at 1.24. The 120-day beta crossed under that line on 3 October. With the 30-day at 0.95, all three windows now say Trailing. This Trailing run is on day 16, against a median Trailing run of 8 days.

Flag: alert. Stability: unstable. The flag is on the gap-shrinking test: the gap is 0.23 smaller than 20 trading days ago. That pattern shows up in the desk’s backtest before regime turns, in either direction. While it is on, any read more than about three weeks out is on shaky ground.

SOL: Falls Harder Than It Climbs

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, SOL captured 99 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, SOL gave back 161 cents. SOL had 1.6 times more downside than upside this week, the heftiest Altcoin tax on Hayloo’s board. SOL has paid the Altcoin Tax for 40 days straight.

Down-capture jumped from 1.40 to 1.61, and the gap widened from −0.39 to −0.62. That is its most negative reading since August 2025.

The 60-day beta is 1.19: 0.31 above SOL’s Trailing line at 0.88 and 1.03 under its Extreme Outperform line at 2.22. The 30-day (1.39) and 120-day (1.19) say Outperform too. At 932 days this is the longest Outperform run in SOL’s record. The longest before it lasted 808 days. Outperformance in beta does not pick side. A coin can outperform Bitcoin to the downside, as well as to the upside.

Flag: clear, fourth week. Stability: stable. Solana’s gap is widening, the opposite of a pattern towards charging Bitcoin the Altcoin tax.

What’s solid, what’s soft

Every coin’s 30-, 60- and 120-day windows agree on its tag.
ETH: the positive gap is 0.57 standard errors from zero and rests on 19 August, which leaves the window on 18 October. The flag is on, so reads past about three weeks are shaky.
SOL: the down-capture level leans on three days when Bitcoin barely fell. Without them it is 1.30.

The Beta Desk measures how altcoins move with Bitcoin. It does not call direction or take positions. Daily closes through 6 October 2026. Hayloo Unchained.

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Ethereum’s Upside Is Shutting Down. – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 40

Hayloo INC. — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:50:34 GMT

Hayloo’s Beta Desk — September 28, 2026.

On September 21 Bitcoin rose 6.5% and Ether rose 4.8%. Ether’s holders made money that day. Measured against Bitcoin, they caught about three-quarters of the move.

The Altcoin Tax is what a coin catches when Bitcoin rises against what it hands back when Bitcoin falls. We measure the major altcoin’s beta, how far a coin moves for each 1% Bitcoin moves. Hayloo’s Beta Desk reads beta over 30, 60, and 120 days of daily moves, and splits the 60-day read by direction. For Ether, 1.24 is the line its own history backtest draws between leading Bitcoin and trailing it.

September 21 pulled Ether’s 60-day beta from 1.27 to 1.20, under the line. Ether had led Bitcoin since July 2, for 81 days.

Hayloo has money on this. Last Thursday we set the test for our Ether short: a second week of the 30-day beta under 1.24, with the 60-day following it down. The 30-day now reads 1.00 and the 60-day reads 1.19. Both are under the line, and the 120-day is the only window still above it. We’re happy with our short position.

Ethereum’s trailing tag is seven days old, and it rests on September 21. Without that session, Ether’s 60-day beta would still read 1.26, narrowly inside the lead. The same day lit Ether’s warning flag. It cut up-capture, what Ether catches when Bitcoin rises, from 1.30 to 1.18. The gap between catching and handing back fell to +0.20 on September 24 before closing the week at +0.21. Twenty trading days earlier Ethereum lead with +0.38. Down-capture, what Ether hands back when Bitcoin falls, held near 0.98 the whole time, so Ethereum’s upside is shutting down.

Ether is still on the good side of the tax, and it has stayed there since August 4, for 55 days. One August session holds it there. On August 19 Ether rose 16.1% while Bitcoin rose 6.9%. Take that day out and Ether’s up-capture reads 0.86, its gap turns to −0.13, and its 120-day beta reads 1.14, which is trailing. A warm day doesn’t make for a good fall. Ethereum’s up-day will leave the 60-day window on October 18.

Ether has spent 78.0% of its recorded history trailing Bitcoin and 22.0% leading it, with no other regime in its record.

This week major altcoins proved to be more volatile when Bitcoin barely moved. Take these quiet days out of the equation, and some of the week’s altcoin tax bills disappear. Below you will read which of the major altcoins still pay the altcoin tax, and if we traded these signals this week.

In a week from now, there will be a
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If you subscribe today,
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Our book is exposed to the crypto markets. People behind Hayloo may hold any coin discussed here, in either direction. Nothing here is advice to buy or sell.

The Beta Desk’s readings behind this post are being packaged for use with your proprietary AI solution. Join the waitlist.

On our use of AI:
We’re a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is compiled by Hayloo and approved by us.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine. What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.
hayloo.org

The Cross-Section: Three of Four Now Pay the Altcoin Tax

Three of the four major altcoins the Beta Desk reads now pay the tax: Solana, XRP, and the altcoin market without Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins. Ether is the only one left on the good side of the line, which sits at zero.

Clean out Bitcoin’s flat days from this week and XRP’s tax disappears. On September 22, 24, and 25 Bitcoin dipped less than half a percent and XRP rose more than 2%. Take those three days out and XRP’s down-capture, what it hands back when Bitcoin falls, reads 1.68. Its up-capture, what it catches when Bitcoin rises, reads 1.73, so buys itself another week on the good side - one eye closed.

Solana’s tax does not survive the same cleaning. Even with this week’s two flat Bitcoin days out, Solana hands back 119 cents of every dollar Bitcoin loses and catches 100 of every dollar Bitcoin gains. We doubled our Solana short at $120.

Solana: The Tax Holds

This week Solana caught 100 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gained and handed back 140 cents of every dollar Bitcoin lost. Last week’s read had it at 104 caught and 117 handed back. It has sat on the costly side of the line for 31 days straight.

Solana’s down-capture rose from 1.17 to 1.40 this week, and the two quiet days wrote most of that rise. Without them it reads 1.19.

Solana’s 60-day beta is 1.18, and all three windows read leading: 1.31 over 30 days and 1.23 over 120. The line down to trailing sits at 0.88, 0.30 below. Solana has led Bitcoin for 88.0% of its recorded history. Its current run as a leader has lasted 923 days, when the median run lasts 331. The regime is stable and the flag is clear. The gap, however, widened to −0.39. Which is why this desk doubled down on a short position on Solana this week.

XRP: The Flip Rests on Four Days

On September 9 we wrote that XRP’s edge had a maturity date. On September 22 XRP’s gap crossed zero, the first time since June 13, and that ended 100 days on the good side. XRP now catches 173 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gains and hands back 193 cents of every dollar Bitcoin loses, 1.1 times as much, and it has been on the costly side for six days running.

Down-capture did XRP’s moving. It rose from 1.63 to 1.93 while up-capture eased from 1.77 to 1.73. This week’s three flat Bitcoin days carried most of it, and one real selloff carried the rest. On September 15 Bitcoin fell 3.4% and XRP fell 10.4%, and without that day alone down-capture reads 1.42. Remove either the flat days or that selloff, and XRP is back on the good side of the tax. But XRP’s flag is lit for the third week running, on a shrinking gap. We sold our remaining 10 million XRP into this rally, and we are waiting in cash.

XRP carries the highest 60-day beta on the board at 1.62, and all three windows read leading: 1.58 over 30 days and 1.37 over 120. The line down to trailing sits at 1.05, 0.57 below. XRP has led Bitcoin for 35.1% of its history, with a median run of 16 days, so its current 40-day run is long for XRP. XRP is the only major altcoin we measure whose history holds four regimes, with stretches of moving independently of Bitcoin and two episodes of extreme outperformance.

The Altcoin Market: The Widest Tax Sits on the Noisiest Numbers

The altcoin market without Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins caught 85 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gained and handed back 147 cents of every dollar Bitcoin lost. That is 1.7 times as much on the way down, 13 days straight. Down-capture jumped from 1.18 to 1.47, its highest since December 2025, and the gap widened from −0.32 to −0.62. But these are also the noisiest numbers on the board.

The 60-day beta is 0.91, the only series on the board below one, and all three windows read trailing: 1.02 over 30 days and 0.94 over 120. The line up to leading sits at 1.27, 0.36 above. The altcoin market has trailed Bitcoin for 76.9% of its history with a median run of 61 days, so its current 242-day run is long. The regime is stable and the flag is clear, and the widening gap is the opposite of the narrowing that has come before past market turns.

Bitcoin’s share of the whole crypto market reads 58.7% and is flat. It sits above its 50-day average of 58.3% and below its 150-day average of 59.0%.

What’s Solid, What’s Soft: Single Days Carry the Week’s Biggest Calls

Solana’s gap is the one tax on the board that clears its own error. This week’s biggest calls rest on single sessions. Ether’s trailing tag is seven days old and rests on September 21, and its 120-day beta sits 0.002 above the line. Ether’s positive gap rests on August 19. XRP’s flip to the costly side rests on September 15. Much of the widening down-capture on Solana, XRP, and the altcoin market came from days when Bitcoin barely moved.

The Beta Desk measures the relationship between each coin and Bitcoin. It does not forecast direction.

Our book is short Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. People behind Hayloo may hold any coin discussed here, in either direction. Nothing here is advice to buy or sell.

The Beta Desk’s readings behind this post are being packaged for use with your proprietary AI-System. Join the waitlist.

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Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.

ETH’s Fast Window Just Called It a Laggard – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 39

Hayloo INC. — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 16:56:51 GMT

Hayloo’s Beta Desk — September 21, 2026.
Beta answers one question: for every 1% Bitcoin moves, how far does the other coin go? Above one, the coin amplifies Bitcoin. Below one, it damps it. The desk measures that over rolling windows of daily moves and splits it by direction. Up-capture is what a coin catches on Bitcoin’s up-days, down-capture is what it hands back on the down-days, and the gap between the two is Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax. Hand back more than you catch and you are paying the tax. Four series are read against Bitcoin, chosen by history rather than preference: ETH, Solana, XRP, and the altcoin basket (TOTAL3ES, the market without Bitcoin, ETH, and the stablecoins).

ETH’s three measurement windows disagreed this week for the first time in its 81-day run as a leader. On September 18 the 30-day beta fell from 1.32 to 1.04 in one session and finished the week at 1.10, under the 1.24 line that separates leading Bitcoin from trailing it. The 60-day window still reads 1.27 and the 120-day 1.28, so on the two longer clocks ETH remains the amplifier we have been describing since July. On the short clock it is a laggard. The beauty about viewing markets through cyclical timeframes is: you get a heads-up. We said last week, we’re short ETH. This week, we’re looking to double down on the bet.

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ETH Has Led for 81 Days Against a Median of Four and a Half

ETH has led Bitcoin’s moves since early July. Across the 24 leading runs in its record the median lasts four and a half days, and this one is the second-longest since 2018, behind only the 316-day run from March 2025 to January 2026.

ETH’s run, historically speaking and backtested, is (too) long. We cut ETH short a week ago, and we were too early. This week, the beta cracks, the flag on ETH is lit, and we’re comfortable with our short position. But the entry could have been much better.

The Cross-Section

Five weeks ago XRP’s 60-day beta sat at 0.95, a hair under Bitcoin’s own pace; today it reads 1.67, its highest since September 2025.

Solana rose from 1.08 to 1.24 in two weeks and altcoins without ETH or stables from 0.84 to 0.95. ETH held between 1.26 and 1.29 the whole time. Solana, while outperforming Bitcoin, does so more violently to the downside. For 24 days, Solana has been paying the altcoin tax, a gap of −0.13, and the basket without ETH or stables pays −0.32.

ETH at +0.34 and XRP at +0.13 are the two majors charging Bitcoin for the ride. One wonders how long this could last.

XRP’s Edge Closed From the Bottom

Two weeks ago XRP had the widest edge over Bitcoin, and we said it had a maturity date. This week, XRP’s upside over Bitcoin narrowed to 13 cents on the dollar, its narrowest since June 18. Two weeks ago, XRP caught 75 cents more of every up-dollar than it handed back of every down-dollar. At the August 27 peak it was 115 cents. XRP still catches more upside than it hands back to Bitcoin. But the edge is closing. We sold all but 10 million XRP into this run.

Solana and the Altcoin Basket Bleed on Bitcoin’s Down-Days

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, Solana caught 104 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it handed back 117. That is 1.1 times more downside than upside, and the 24th straight day on the wrong side of the line. Solana keeps paying the altcoin tax, and so does the altcoin basket without ETH or stablecoins. Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, the basket caught 86 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it handed back 118. That is 1.4 times more downside than upside, with the gap widening to −0.32 this week. This is the opposite of the contraction that precedes a turn in regime.

On our use of AI:
We’re a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is compiled by Hayloo and written by us.
Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.
Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine.
What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.
Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.
hayloo.org

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What’s Solid, What’s Soft

The numbers are tighter than the stories sitting on top of them. The three single-coin betas carry the smallest errors on the board, 6% for XRP, 7% for ETH, and 8% for Solana, and Solana’s 916-day run and XRP’s 33-day run have all three windows agreeing. XRP’s flag fires on contraction: its gap is closing. ETH’s fires on the contraction and on the split across its timeframes. A lit flag means the relationship with Bitcoin is moving. Every figure in this post measures the window it names. None of them says what comes next.

Disclaimer

Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.

We’re short Ethereum with a target of $1.4K – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 38

Hayloo INC. — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 10:02:50 GMT

The Beta Desk · Hayloo Unchained · week of 16 September 2026

Beta is the answer to one question: when Bitcoin moves one percent, how much does the other asset move? Hayloo’s Beta Desk measures it on a rolling 60-day window, splits it into up-capture (Bitcoin’s up days) and down-capture (Bitcoin’s down days), and calls the difference the altcoin tax. A positive gap means the coin charges Bitcoin the tax. A negative gap means the altcoin pays the tax.

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This week, XRP, Ethereum, and the Altcoin basket without ETH or Stables (Total3ES) outperformed Bitcoin, Solana was the only major to pay the Altcoin Tax.

XRP’s contraction flag fired after an impressive one-month outperformance of Bitcoin into September 15th’s Clarity Act Nay. At Hayloo, we wrapped up our selling into strength of XRP, SOL, and BTC, taking profits on all three coins, and we added a short position for Ethereum to the existing Bitcoin and Solana shorts.

As we’re giving the market time to absorb regulatory unclarity and inflationary pressure, we are rebuilding our book for a hyperliquid (pun intended) blockchain adoption in times of regulatory unclarity. We are positioned to buy HYPE, ZEC and AAVE on weakness, while building out our LINK position, and repurchasing Bitcoin below $60K, XRP below $0.88, as well as SOL below $70.

The four-coin cross-section: Solana carries the desk's only negative gap this week

TOTAL3ES — This week, Alts outside Ethereum stopped paying the Altcoin Tax

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained this week, the altcoin basket captured 82 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it gave back 69 cents. That is 1.2 times more upside than downside. The gap has sat on the favourable side for two days.

The basket carries three of the four regimes. It has never printed an Extreme Outperform cluster. Trailing has held 229 days against a median run of 61; all three windows agree.

On our use of AI:

We’re a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it follows our strategies, it reads the news that affect our portfolio, it sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is compiled by Hayloo.

Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.

Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine.

What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.

Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.

hayloo.org

Solana has fallen harder than Bitcoin for 18 straight days

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, SOL captured 88 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, SOL gave back 106 cents. That is 1.2 times more downside than upside, and SOL has bled asymmetrically against Bitcoin for 18 days straight. At Hayloo, we sold all SOL above $100, this week’s beta confirms our decision. The 60-day beta of 1.12 sits 0.24 above the Trailing cut, all three windows agree, and the flag is clear.

SOL has no Decoupled cluster. The Outperform run stands at 910 days against a median run of 331.

Ethereum's Outperform run is 75 days old against a median of four and a half

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, ETH captured 134 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, ETH gave back 81 cents. That is 1.6 times more upside than downside, and ETH has caught more of Bitcoin’s upside than its downside for 42 days straight.

ETH carries only the two structural regimes, Trailing (78.0%) and Outperform (22.0%), and neither tail. The Outperform run stands at 75 days against a median run of 4.5, with all three windows agreeing. This is the environment we like to short into at Hayloo. We opened an ETH short at 2.6K, 31.000 coins heavy, nominal $74.5M. Our price target is $1.400.00

XRP outran Bitcoin into the Clarity Act vote and Hayloo sold into the run

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, XRP captured 185 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, XRP gave back 115 cents. That is 1.6 times more upside than downside, and XRP has held the favourable side of the gap for 93 days straight.

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At 1.61 the 60-day beta is at its highest since November 2025 and has been in Outperform for 27 days against a median run of 16. XRP’s outperformance triggered our final tranche of XRP sells this week. Beta neither confirms nor denies our trade. We’re prepared to buy back XRP below $0.88.

XRP carries all four regimes: Decoupled (3.8%, three episodes), Trailing (60.5%), Outperform (35.1%) and Extreme Outperform (0.6%, two episodes). The current 1.61 sits 0.56 above the Trailing cut and 1.18 below the Extreme cut.

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What’s solid, what’s soft

Solid: the regime tags, the sign of each coin’s gap, the direction word on dominance, and the ordering of the four betas all reproduce from the workbooks after recalculation, on every prior computed row to within one part in a billion.

Soft, by coin:

TOTAL3ES. The positive gap is within noise.
SOL. Down-capture’s error bar is 25% of the estimate.
ETH. The 60-day beta is 0.03 above the Trailing cut.

The Beta Desk measures the Bitcoin–altcoin relationship. It does not call direction.

Disclaimer

Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.

Ether’s Upside Is Draining Faster Than Its Downside - Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 37

Hayloo INC. — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 22:10:57 GMT

Hayloo’s Beta Desk. Beta is one number: when Bitcoin moves one percent, how far does the other coin move? Above one, the coin amplifies Bitcoin. Below one, it damps Bitcoin’s moves. The desk splits that number by direction, measuring what a coin catches on Bitcoin’s up-days against what it hands back on the down-days. Hand back more than you catch and your portfolio is paying Hayloo’s altcoin tax.

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Dear Subscriber,

Thank you for being here. We started publishing from our desk a few weeks ago, and we’ve already e-met a lot of sharp people. We appreciate every one of you.

Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax is a weekly read from our Beta Desk. Until now it lived inside Hayloo’s Weekly Tape. Enough of you wrote in about it that we decided to give it its own home.

From today it arrives as its own email. If you want fewer emails, turn the Altcoin Tax off in your subscriber settings and we will keep folding it into the Tape for you.

Thanks again for being here. This is fun, and it doesn’t feel like work. There is not much more anyone can ask of a job than that.

Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.

Ether has spent this year as the dependable amplifier. Bitcoin moves, Ether moves further, and the holder gets paid for carrying the extra swing. That trade is thinning from the top down. Of every dollar Bitcoin gained this week, Ether caught 137 cents, off a peak of 205 in August. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost it handed back 99, down from 124 over the same stretch. Both sides came in. But what matters to us is this: The side that pays JohnDoe.eth came in nearly three times as far.

The beta itself now reads 1.28 against a cut at 1.24, four hundredths from the point where Hayloo’s Beta Desk stops calling Ether a leader and starts calling it a laggard. Four hundredths is less ground than Ether covers in a quiet week, so the label can change without the relationship underneath it changing at all. What has already changed is the shape of the payout, and that is the number we are trading off.

On our use of AI:

Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.

Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine.

What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.

Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.

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The Cross-Section

XRP reads 1.52 and Ether 1.28, both above parity, so both still travel further than Bitcoin in either direction. Solana at 1.08 barely clears it. The altcoin basket without Bitcoin, Ether, and stables (TOTAL3ES) reads 0.84, which we read as a maturing process from the “Everything Blockchain Buy My Token Trust Me Bro”-bubble to projects actually solving problems and making dough with blockchain tech, which is what Hayloo’s portfolio is structured for.

Ether Has Held This Tag Fifteen Times Longer Than It Usually Does

When we backtested Ether, its history showed only two states: Trailing and Outperform. It has spent 78.0% of its recorded life trailing Bitcoin and 22.0% leading. It is sixty-nine days into the leading state against a median run of four and a half days. The reading itself is ordinary for Ethereum. The duration is not.

All three measurement windows still agree on the tag, at 1.30 over thirty days, 1.28 over sixty, and 1.28 over a hundred and twenty, so nothing inside the measurement disagrees about where Ether sits today.

XRP’s Edge Has a Maturity Date

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, XRP caught 180 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it handed back 105. That is 1.7 times more upside than downside and eighty-seven straight days on the favorable side, the longest run on the board.

Eighteen of those 180 cents belong to two sessions. On August 20 and 21 Bitcoin ran 5% and 7% while XRP ran 13% and 14%. Take either day out of the window and up-capture falls from 180 cents to roughly 162.

XRP’S edge over Bitcoin is already closing. It peaked at 1.15 on August 27 and reads 0.75 twelve sessions later. This week both sides moved toward each other, with down-capture rising from 93 cents to 105 and up-capture easing from 187 to 180. The beta itself did not move at all, 1.5164 to 1.5156, so nothing changed in how far XRP travels with Bitcoin. What changed is who gets paid for the travelling.

Solana Is Failing on Bitcoin’s Up-Days

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, Solana caught 86 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it handed back 111. That is 1.3 times more downside for Solana over Bitcoin’s upside, and it has held on that side for twelve days.

Which side moved is the whole story. Up-capture fell from 97 cents to 86 across the week and more than half of that landed in a single session, September 3, when Bitcoin ran 5.0% and Solana took 69 cents of it. Talking about a top-signal. We sold SOL spot two weeks ago, closed the long hedge, and doubled the short. This week’s reading does not argue with that position and does not yet prove it.

The TOTAL3ES Basket Is Thirty-Five Days on the Wrong Side

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, the basket caught 79 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it handed back 95. That is 1.2 times more altcoin downside than upside, and thirty-five straight days of it.

What’s Solid, What’s Soft

Solid. The three single-coin betas are the tightest numbers on the board, Solana and XRP sit well clear of their cuts, and the direction of Ether’s beta is confirmed; it has fallen at each of the last three weekly marks.

Soft. Ether’s tag sits inside a single week’s normal movement of its cut, so the label can change while nothing underneath it does.

Horizon. These relationships are moving fast enough that any read beyond about three weeks is on shaky ground. Every figure above measures the window it names and claims nothing about what comes next.

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Disclaimer

Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.

Solana Crossed to Our Short Side of the Trade – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 36

Hayloo INC. — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 02:09:35 GMT

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Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax. Beta is one number: when Bitcoin moves one percent, how far does the other coin move? Beta above one is an altcoin amplifying Bitcoin. A beta below one damps Bitcoin’s moves. The desk splits that number by direction — what a coin catches on Bitcoin’s up-days against what it hands back on the down-days. Hand back more than you catch and your portfolio is paying the altcoin tax.

One session did most of this week’s work. On August 28 Bitcoin fell 3.1%. The altcoin basket fell 3.1% with it, Solana and XRP both fell 4.7%, and Ether fell 2.7%. Three of the four measurements moved because of it.

The cross-section spread out.

The distance between the lowest (Total3ES) and highest (XRP) reading is 0.67 against 0.59 a week ago. XRP did the moving: its sixty-day beta was 1.04 twenty trading days ago and reads 1.52 now, a shift of 0.47 that took it from the middle of the board to the top. We used XRP’s outperformance as an exit signal from our spot positions.

Solana crossed , and it is the coin we are short.

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, Solana caught 97 cents. Of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it handed back 113 cents. Four Bitcoin down-days entered the window and Solana over-dropped on every one of them. This is why we sold our SOL last week, why we closed our long-hedge, and doubled our short. It was in the Beta. This week, we get confirmation.

The level itself is unremarkable for Solana. At −0.16 the gap sits at the fifty-first percentile of the coin’s own history, the median across that history is −0.17, and Solana has spent two-thirds of its life on the negative side of the beta.

XRP is top of the board and underwater on its own chain.

187 cents caught against 93 handed back, two times more upside than downside, and eighty straight days on the favorable side. Then look at the coin itself: spot sits at realized price of $1.47, roughly half of supply is in profit, and the coins that moved this week moved at a loss. A coin can amplify Bitcoin’s percentage moves beautifully and still be a place where the average holder loses money, and XRP is currently both. After selling 50% of our spot at a 500% profit a week ago, we flagged another 30% for selling into strength. Even with another cloture vote on the Clarity Act coming up in a little under two weeks, our book is currently being repositioned for a world of unclarity. And we’re looking for entries into LINK, HYPE, AAVE, PYTH and ZEC.

The TOTAL3ES basket’s gap reopened.

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, the altcoin complex caught 76 cents; of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it handed back 89. That is 1.2 times more downside than upside and it has held on that side for twenty-eight days.

Down-capture is what moved, from 75 cents to 89, while up-capture barely shifted. The basket has been Trailing for 216 days against a 61-day median across two dozen historical runs, and Trailing is where it spends 76.9% of its life. This is not a rotation failing to arrive. It is the ordinary state of the complex reasserting itself.

On our use of AI:

Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.

Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine.

What we publish is what we defend as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because humans signed it.

Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.

hayloo.org

Ether still catches more than it hands back.

146 cents caught against 102 handed back, 1.4 times more upside than downside, and it has held the favorable side for twenty-nine days. Both numbers fell this week and down-capture fell faster, which widened the gap to 0.44 — and the reason matters. The gap widened because the weaker number weakened faster, not because Ether’s upside improved. Ether’s own history populates only two states, Trailing at 78% and Outperform at 22%, and it is sixty-two days into an Outperform run whose median length is four and a half days.

Bitcoin is taking share back.

Bitcoin’s portion of total crypto market value reads 59.1%, above its 50-day average of 58.4% and a tenth of a point under its 150-day at 59.2%. It is three points above the 56.1% low set on August 14. Rising dominance means Bitcoin is taking share and everything else is losing it, and the basket’s capture data points the same way.

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Disclaimer

Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.

XRP and SOL Ran to the Top and We Sold – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 35

Hayloo INC. — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 02:02:50 GMT

Beta is one number: when Bitcoin moves a dollar, how much does this coin move. Above one it amplifies Bitcoin’s gains, below one it lags. We measure beta over sixty days and then twice more, once on Bitcoin’s up days and once on its down days. Because a coin that catches most of the way up and gives back little of the way down is a different animal from one that does both at par.

Bitcoin paid a hefty Tax on XRP this week

For six sessions, XRP took 183cents on Bitcoin’s green days, and only gave back 80 cents on red ones.

XRP is this week’s story. It ran 33% between August 19 and August 24 while Bitcoin ran 14% over the same six sessions, and those six sessions re-rated every number on its card. At Hayloo, we held a sizeable multi-year position of spot XRP, and we decided to off-load 50% at a 500% profit.

The sixty-day beta went from 0.96 on August 18 to 1.45, the largest twenty-day move on the board, and it carried XRP from the second-lowest beta of the four to the highest. XRP caught 183 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gained and gave back 80 of every dollar Bitcoin lost, the widest split on the board by a distance.

Take those six sessions out of the window and the same sixty days give a beta of 1.14. That is the whole caution. The figures measure this week’s rally sitting inside a sixty-day window rather than a settled relationship. This is why last week’s XRP beta inspired us at Hayloo to offload 50% of our multi-year spot holdings.

On our use of AI:

We’re a private crypto fund out of Switzerland. We built a Neurosymbolic Compound AI System for our own desk: it reads the news for us, takes our strategy every week, sits on a database going back decades, and brings math to our everyday emotions. We call it Hayloo. It’s our best hire. This Substack is compiled by Hayloo.

Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.

Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine.

There’s no meter, no word count, no hour count, no token that tells you how much of us is in our work. We don’t only use AI, we also run custom scripts, we create in-house data like the Altcoin Tax, we ask questions, and we debate Hayloo’s contributions.

What survives is what we defended as a team. When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because we signed it.

Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.

hayloo.org

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Ethereum

Ethereum’s beta came back down to 1.35 from 1.54, with capture of 150 cents up against 109 down, and its outperform run is 54 days old against a four-and-a-half-day median.

Solana

Solana’s beta sits at 1.06. It catches 97 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gains and gives back 91 on red days. Five weeks ago those numbers were 122 and 76 — a 46-cent edge, now down to six.

Last week Solana was still the clear beta outperformer. That asymmetry closed out in this week’s rally.

The beta read pushed us to close the long we carry against the short book, and we moved a tad early. This week’s read lets us sleep with both eyes closed.

Total3ES

The basket of altcoins without ETH or stablecoins sits at 0.84, catching 72 cents up and giving back 75 down, which is roughly par in both directions.

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Disclaimer

Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.

Bitcoin keeps paying the majors – Hayloo’s Alt Tax Week 34

Hayloo INC. — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 03:23:47 GMT

Hayloo’s Beta Desk. Beta is how far a coin travels when Bitcoin moves a dollar: above 1.00 it amplifies, below 1.00 it lags. The beta desk splits that by direction — what a coin catches on Bitcoin’s up-days against what it hands back on the down-days. Hand back more than you catch and your portfolio is paying the altcoin tax. This week the whole board rests on a single move. What follows are real measurements leaning very hard on one price rally

On our use of AI:

Measuring AI to value writing is like rating a restaurant by whether the chef used a food processor.

Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.

Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine.

There’s no meter, no word count, no hour count, no token that tells you how much of us is in our work. We use AI, we run scripts, we process data, we ask questions, and we debate what the machine contributes.

What survives is what we defended as a team.

When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because us, the humans, signed it.

Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.

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Ethereum leads the week. ETH caught 205 cents of every Bitcoin up-dollar against 124 handed back, the widest gap on the board, and its 60-day beta went from 1.27 to 1.54 in a single session. We’ll want more down-days in the math before anyone calls ETH’s run a regime.

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Solana’s gap reopened. SOL caught 122 cents against 76 handed back, and that 0.76 on the downside sits in the bottom eleven percent of everything Solana has ever printed. Alts with revenue and a story appear to have found a floor to stand on. Solana’s outperform run is 884 days against a 331-day median, the longest in its record — that one is a regime, not a coincidence.

XRP crossed, and the tag is one day old. XRP caught 134 cents against 83 handed back and has held the favourable side of the trade for 67 days. Its 60-day beta bottomed at 0.95 on the 17th, deep in lagging territory, and by Wednesday all three windows had crossed above the line together. Five straight weeks of narrowing tax gap, erased in one session. Coins in heavily regulated corners like XRP ran on bond plumbing and CLARITY Act hopes. Nothing here is settled.

The basket is the one still paying. Take the altcoins outside Bitcoin, Ether and the stablecoins as a single class and the desk reads 33 cents caught on the way up against 85 handed back on the way down. Two and a half times more downside than upside, a deafening asymmetry. This is the cycle sorting the shitcoin goats from the altcoin sheep. The big dying is under way, and the crowd only notices because parts of the market have simply stopped existing.

Bitcoin dominance Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value reads 56.6%, under its 50-day average of 58.2 and its 150-day at 59.2. Falling dominance is money rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins.

What is solid and what is soft.

Solid: the regime tags and persistence counts, computed on full histories. Soft, and precisely so: three of the four had their week decided by one move.

Disclaimer

Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.

The Alt Tax – Reshuffeling after CLARITY is unclear

Hayloo INC. — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 03:12:11 GMT

Hayloo’s Beta Desk. Beta is how much a coin moves when Bitcoin moves a dollar: above 1.00 it amplifies Bitcoin, below 1.00 it lags. The desk splits that into what a coin catches on Bitcoin’s up-days against what it gives back on the down-days. Give back more than you catch and your portfolio is paying an altcoin tax.

TOTAL3ES – This week was brutal

The alt complex captures nothing on the way up and nearly everything on the way down. Taking the altcoins excluding Bitcoin, Ether and stablecoins as one class, the desk reads −43 cents caught on every dollar Bitcoin gains against 89 cents given back on every dollar it loses.

That is the arithmetic of a class being drained while its regulatory hope drains with it. The Senate went home on August 8 without a vote on the CLARITY Act and does not return until September 14.

Bernstein’s read is that another failure hits the whole complex, though the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) can keep writing rules on token classification, decentralized finance and self-custody without Congress. That is the trade underneath the beta: a rulebook written by agencies rather than legislators, changeable by the next administration, and no date on any of it.

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Solana ran a round trip; Ethereum firmed. Last week’s record 0.50 gap between Solana’s up- and down-capture collapsed to 0.08. Its 60-day at 1.12 is the lowest since June 3, just above the line that would end an Outperform streak now 876 days old. Ethereum caught 154 cents against 123 given back, on an asymmetry eight days old that held rather than contracting.

XRP is pinned to its own boundary and the flag is red. 112 cents up against 87 down, a gap that has narrowed five weeks running from 0.57 in early July to 0.25, a hair short of the contraction the desk’s backtest sees before a regime turns in either direction. The fast and primary windows disagree for a second week. A relationship this pinned is mid-shift by construction.

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Bitcoin dominance is flat on the week and still leaking. Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value reads 56.5%, unchanged from last week and below both its 50-day and 150-day averages.

What is solid and what is soft. Solid: the 60-day betas across the series, whose errors run between 6% and 11% of the estimates, and every down-capture on the board. Soft: the entire up-side of the class read, and Solana’s residual gap, which sits inside an error bar 43% the size of its own estimate. Softest: XRP’s tag, one day old on a beta that has spent more than half of two months inside three hundredths of its own boundary.

🟠 The alt class has more life than Bitcoin, and we are studying names that do not need Washington to say yes.

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On our use of AI:

Measuring AI to value writing is like rating a restaurant by whether the chef used a food processor.

Humans have written machine-assisted for centuries. What never changes is who decides.

Nothing at Hayloo INC. was ever decided by a machine.

What survives is what we defended as a team.

When it’s wrong, it’s wrong because us, the humans, signed it.

Jordi Federer, Founder, Hayloo INC.

Disclaimer

Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.

Solana keeps amplifying Bitcoin– Hayloo's Alt Tax Week 32

Hayloo INC. — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 21:40:46 GMT

by Hayloo’s Beta Desk.

Beta is how much a coin moves when Bitcoin moves a dollar: above 1.00 it amplifies Bitcoin, below 1.00 it lags. The desk splits that into what a coin catches on Bitcoin’s up-days against what it gives back on the down-days, because most coins do not catch the two in equal measure. Give back more than you catch and your portfolio is paying an altcoin tax. This week, the three majors lead Bitcoin. The basket holding everything else is on par.

◆ FOCUS COIN

XRP — every signal moved

XRP crossed back over the line, and every signal it carries moved. XRP reads Outperform on the 60-day at 1.13, eleven days into a run against a 16-day median. The 30-day went the other way. With both timeframes landing in different regimes, we expect the run to run out of gas, as it did all summer, with XRP seeking guidance (liquidity) in a dry pool of sand.

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, XRP captured 115 cents; of every dollar Bitcoin lost, it gave back 85 cents.

Where the 1.13 comes from. Cut the 60-day window in half and measure each half alone. The older thirty days come out at 1.20. The most recent thirty come out at 1.00. The last month has XRP moving with Bitcoin roughly dollar for dollar, not a regime per se.

The gap peaked at 0.57 on 7 July and has closed over the twenty-eight trading days since, to 0.30 now. A gap closing toward zero is the pattern our backtest flags ahead of regime turns in either direction. It has not closed far enough to trip anything. It is worth watching.

XRP carries four regimes in its history: Trailing holds 60.5% across thirty spells, Outperform 35.1% across twenty-nine, Decoupled 3.8% across three, and Extreme Outperform 0.6% ac

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SOL — 1.7 times more upside than downside

Solana keeps amplifying Bitcoin. Solana’s >800-day lead is 2.6 times its own 331-day median. On the 60-day it catches 122 cents of every one of Bitcoin’s up-dollars against 72 given back, so Solana currently has 1.7 times more upside than downside, charging Bitcoin a hefty Solana Tax, and there’s no change in sight.

SOL is an Outperform coin by construction: 88.0% of its five-year history, across five spells. Trailing holds 6.8% across two, Extreme Outperform 5.1% across two. Decoupled has never happened.

ETH — the fast window pulled away

Ethereum caught 152 cents of every Bitcoin up-dollar against 121 given back, and that advantage is four days old; the day before, the numbers ran the other way. Ethereum reads Outperform on the 60-day at 1.32, thirty-four days in against a 4.5-day median run that makes this one long by its own standards. The 30-day and 60-day disagree for the first time in a month, the fast window having dropped below its 1.24 line into Trailing on August 1 while the 60-day and 120-day both still lead, and that split is what put the flag on monitor. Ethereum is doing what XRP is doing: carrying upside beta into a market that has no gas in the tank.

ETH carries two regimes only. Trailing holds 78.0% of its history across twenty-five spells and Outperform 22.0% across twenty-four. Neither Decoupled nor Extreme Outperform has ever occurred. The current 34-day spell is long by ETH’s standards, against a 4.5-day median Outperform run.

TOTAL3ES — altcoins excluding stablecoins

The basket is still behind, 188 days in, but only by a hair. TOTAL3ES, altcoins excluding stablecoins, ethereum or bitcoin, has read Trailing for 188 consecutive days against a 61-day median. However, the 60-day beta that sets the tag is 0.99, just under one-for-one and well under the 1.27 line that would make the altcoin basket outperform Bitcoin’s moves.

TOTAL3ES caught 108 cents of every up-dollar and gave back 74, which is 1.4 times more upside than downside and the rarer side of the split on this basket. Trailing is simply where this basket is used to hang out: 76.9% of nine years of daily observations, but we’re witnessing a slow regime change, shifting capital away from bitcoin to alts.

Trailing is where this basket lives: 76.9% of nine years of daily observations, across twenty-four separate spells. Outperform holds 21.1% across twenty-two spells. Decoupled has happened once, for sixty-four days in total. At 188 days the current spell is already past the 61-day median Trailing run.

What’s solid, what’s soft

Solid. The 60-day betas across all four coins. The regime tags, which come from boundaries fitted on each coin’s full history. The direction of every asymmetry gap.

Soft. The size of the up-capture and down-capture numbers. The standard errors run from 12% of the estimate on ETH’s down-capture to 29% on SOL’s up-capture, and SOL’s are the widest on the desk this week — wide enough that the 1.22 should be read as a range, not a point.

Softer still. Anything resting on a thin count of historical episodes. XRP’s Extreme Outperform regime rests on two episodes and its Decoupled on three. The basket’s Decoupled regime rests on one. SOL’s Trailing and Extreme Outperform rest on two each.

Horizons. XRP and ETH are both moving fast enough that any read beyond about three weeks is on shaky ground. TOTAL3ES and SOL are steady and today’s read holds out to the usual horizon.

Underneath. Nine years of daily closes for the basket (3,308 observations) and XRP (3,487), eight for ETH (3,138), five for SOL (1,874). Turning-point catalogues of 128, 113, 78 and 60 events. Small-sample medians throughout; not bootstrap-robust.

The Beta Desk measures the relationship between Bitcoin and everything else. It does not forecast direction and it does not take positions.

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Alt Tax – Major Alts caught more of Bitcoin's rise than its fall this week

Jordi Federer – Hayloo INC. — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:01:57 GMT

Beta is how much a coin moves when Bitcoin moves a dollar: above 1.00 it amplifies Bitcoin, below 1.00 it lags. The desk splits that into what a coin catches on Bitcoin’s up-days and what it gives back on the down-days, because most coins do not catch the two in equal measure. Give back more than you catch and you are paying the alt tax.

The Beta Desk

Alt Tax: The Major cross-section

The gap between top and bottom is wide and steady: ETH and SOL both above 1, XRP straddling parity from below, TOTAL3 near half. The β = 1 line is where a coin matches Bitcoin one-for-one; the majors held above 1 for weeks.

Bitcoin dominance

BTC.D sits at 59.4% and is rising. It topped at 61.14% on May 5 — now 1.74 points and 78 days off that peak — then bottomed at 57.94% on June 3, and has climbed 1.46 points over the seven days since. It trades above its 50-day average (58.84%) and a fraction under its 150-day (59.42%). Rising dominance means Bitcoin is taking market share back from the broad alt market.

Dominance and the basket agree this week. BTC.D is rising and TOTAL3 is in Trailing at 0.54 — both saying the same thing, Bitcoin gaining share while altcoins lag.

TOTAL3 — trailing, 226 days

This week, of every dollar Bitcoin gained the basket captured 54 cents, and of every dollar Bitcoin lost it gave back 42 cents — 1.3× more upside than downside. The asymmetry gap held near +0.12; no contraction, no turn signal. The pattern that precedes a turn is the gap closing toward zero, and it is not here.

At 0.54 the basket sits in Trailing, 0.31 above the Decoupled cut at 0.23 and 0.43 below the Outperform cut at 0.96 — well inside the band, not near either edge. This is day 226 in Trailing, past the 51-day median run. All four regimes have shown up in TOTAL3’s history, but the two tails are single episodes: Decoupled 63 days once, Extreme Outperform 58 days once.

XRP — trailing, 9 days

This week, of every dollar Bitcoin gained XRP captured 121 cents, and of every dollar Bitcoin lost it gave back 86 cents — 1.4× more upside than downside. The gap holds near +0.35; no contraction.

SOL — leading stable

This week, of every dollar Bitcoin gained SOL captured 121 cents and of every dollar Bitcoin lost it gave back 109 cents — 1.1× more upside than downside. The gap widened this week, with no contraction in sight.

ETH — leading, 21 days

This week, of every dollar Bitcoin gained ETH captured 160 cents, and of every dollar Bitcoin lost it gave back 127 cents — 1.3× more upside than downside. For 21 straight days the asymmetry has run in ETH’s favor. The gap held near +0.32; no contraction.

Only two regimes have ever shown up for ETH: Trailing (78% of the sample) and Outperform (22%). At has been in Outperform for 21 days, well past ETH’s 4.5-day median Outperform run — Ethereums’ leads are historically short.

What’s solid, what’s soft

Solid. The 60-day betas and the regime tags rest on full-sample rolling windows. All four flags are clear, and the tax runs favorable (up-capture above down-capture) for Altcoins this week.

Soft. The conditional betas are noisier than the symmetric 60-day. SOL’s up-capture carries the widest standard error on the desk — 32% of the estimate; the other conditional betas run 13–20%. Two coins sit near a boundary: XRP at 1.04 is 0.008 under the Outperform cut, nine days into Trailing and under its median run, so a small move flips it back; ETH at 1.30 is 0.056 above the same-direction cut with a historically short lead behind it.

The Beta Desk at Hayloo Unchained measures the relationship between Alts and Bitcoin, and flags what’s uncertain. You make the trading calls.

Hayloo's Tape July 3 – Bitcoin’s Floor Got Tested, Not Built

Hayloo INC. — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 05:29:16 GMT

Tape of the Week

The liquidity engine that leads risk assets went negative this week. Michael Howell’s Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) printed −0.1% year-on-year, even as the headline number climbed. The two are not one read. The headline is China restarting injections and a bond market quiet enough to flatter the collateral math; underneath it, the engine is drained by a real economy strong enough to soak up the money that would otherwise chase risk assets. Hence, Bitcoin’s 21-month low at $57,779 this week.

Gold had its worst quarter since 2013 and broke below $4,000; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to a four-month low. The dollar is the through-line on every one of them, and it is the heavy weight pushing down Bitcoin.

Our read of Bitcoin’s dealer floor in the low-$60,000s is a bottom being tested, not built. This week’s divergence is the BTC/SOL ratio, up roughly 16% after we called out Solana’s historic asymmetric outrun over Bitcoin last week.

This week, we’re stunned at XRP’s 1.5× more upside than downside over Bitcoin, with no turn signal in sight.

The Alt Tax – Solana’s Record Lead is Beginning to Flash

Hayloo’s Beta Desk

Beta measures how much a coin moves for each move in Bitcoin. A beta of 1 means it tracks Bitcoin one-for-one; above 1 it amplifies Bitcoin’s moves, below 1 it dampens them. We split that into up-capture (β⁺, how much a coin catches on Bitcoin’s green days) and down-capture (β⁻, how much it gives back on the red days) — when the two differ, there’s an asymmetry, and we watch whether that gap is widening or closing.

Last week, we put Solana’s Altcoin Tax on watch, tripping the fast-moving contraction flag at our Beta desk. Solana’s relationship to Bitcoin was repricing fast this week.

SOL has led Bitcoin for 835 straight days — the longest Outperform run on record, more than double the 331-day median for the regime. But after 835 quiet days the run is no longer sitting still.

For most of that run SOL carried a down-bias — it caught more of Bitcoin’s downside than its upside, “The Alt Tax”. This week that bias has effectively vanished: up-capture 106 cents, down-capture 108, a −0.02 gap oscillating around zero. The gap collapsed from −0.41 on June 13 to −0.02, tripping the contraction flag — the signal our backtest watches for ahead of regime turns, in either direction.

SOL lives in Outperform 88% of its six-year sample, the most one-sided regime distribution on the desk. We keep watching Solana closely.

🟠 This week’s Solana ALT Tax is on Monitor.

XRP — Leading for 16 Days with no End in Sight

XRP flipped into Outperform over Bitcoin 16 days ago and has held it. This is the cleanest asymmetry on the desk.

XRP captured 129 cents of every Bitcoin dollar gained and gave back only 86 on every dollar lost — 1.5× more upside than downside — and the gap widened to +0.43 this week. Widening, not closing, means no turn signal: the pattern that precedes a turn is the gap contracting toward zero, and it isn’t here.

XRP is in Outperform 35% of its ten-year sample.

🟢 This week’s XRP Alt Tax is Sweet.

TOTAL3 — the Altcoin Basket, Trailing for 205 Days

Altcoins as a basket have trailed Bitcoin on the 60-day beta for 205 straight days, well past the 51-day median Trailing run.

For three weeks the up/down split has run in the basket’s favor. This week altcoins captured 57 cents of every Bitcoin dollar gained and gave back only 42 on every dollar lost — about 1.3× more upside than downside. But on a magnitude basis the gap is flat versus 20 days ago, so there’s no contraction and no turn signal. The favorable tilt is a local-window reading on a thin sample of up-days, not a break in the long-run picture where altcoins usually give back more than they catch.

The basket sits mid-Trailing (regime mean 0.73), the dominant state at 66% of the sample.

🟢 This week’s Total3 Alt Tax is Chill.

ETH — Knife-edge on the Boundary

ETH is the desk’s knife-edge. The 60-day beta has held Trailing for 21 days, but it sits a hair under the 1.24 Trailing/Outperform cut while both the 30- and 120-day windows read Outperform — a cross-window split now in its fourth straight week. 35 of the last 60 days sit within ±0.03 of that boundary. Two instability conditions firing at once.

The asymmetry ran the favorable way — 139 cents up-capture against 123 down, about 1.1× more upside than downside. But the +0.16 gap sits inside both error bars (up-capture ±0.25, down-capture ±0.16), so it is statistically indistinguishable from symmetric. The 20-day gap has net-narrowed from +0.30 to +0.16, which trips the contraction flag — but the path bottomed at +0.06 and bounced, and week-over-week the gap actually widened. The narrowing is the early-June spike rolling out of the 20-day window, not fresh contraction.

ETH runs a two-regime framework: Trailing (mean 0.96, 78%) and Outperform (mean 1.36, 22%). No Decoupled or Extreme Outperform regime has ever populated for ETH. The 60-day beta sits right on the 1.24 line that divides the two.

🟢 This week’s Ethereum Alt Tax is Chill

The Cross-section

Read low-to-high: TOTAL3 deep in Trailing, XRP and ETH clustered around their boundaries, SOL alone out at 1.37. The spread is wide right now: nearly 0.8 of beta separates the altcoin basket from SOL, with ETH and XRP threading the β = 1 line that marks parity with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin dominance — BTC.D, Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market cap — sits at 58.3% and is falling, trading below both its 50-day (59.4%) and 150-day (59.4%) averages. Falling dominance means Bitcoin is ceding market share to the rest of crypto.

The basket disagrees with itself. Dominance is falling — market share drifting toward altcoins — while the aggregate altcoin beta (TOTAL3) still reads Trailing, altcoins underperforming Bitcoin move-for-move. The two point opposite ways. We flag the disagreement; we do not call which side resolves.

🔴 This week’s Bitcoin Dominance is bearish.

What’s Solid, What’s Soft

Solid. The regime tags and the long persistences are the firmest reads: TOTAL3’s Trailing has all three windows agreeing at 205 days, SOL’s Outperform is 835 days deep, and the symmetric and down-capture standard errors are tight across the desk (13–19% of estimate).

Soft. SOL’s asymmetry collapse rests on a noisy up-capture leg — its up-capture standard error is 42% of the estimate, so the direction of the contraction is clear but its magnitude is soft, and our Inference Auditor dissents on how much to read into it. ETH’s favorable tilt (+0.16) sits inside both its error bars, statistically indistinguishable from symmetric, and its beta has spent 35 of the last 60 days within a few hundredths of the boundary, so the Trailing tag is fragile. XRP’s lead is real but only 16 days old. The tail regimes everywhere are thin — one to three historical episodes each, none at all for ETH — so any read on Decoupled or Extreme Outperform is a small-sample read. And where a flag is firing (SOL and ETH), the relationship is moving fast enough that any read beyond about three weeks is on shaky ground.

The Beta Desk measures the empirical beta relationship between each tracked coin and Bitcoin — directional up- and down-capture, the regime it implies, and how stable that regime is. We report what the data shows and flag what’s uncertain; we do not forecast price or suggest you take positions. The trading view is yours to add. — The Beta Desk, Hayloo Unchained.

On-Chain Tape

Bitcoin is testing a floor before building a bottom, and this week the test got more constructive. Glassnode’s Long-Term Holder net position change is back positive, the Accumulation Trend Score has broadened, and — other than a week ago — both the Binance and Coinbase spot orderbooks have turned bid-heavy. Dealer gamma has turned supportive in the low-$60,000 region where dealers hedge by buying weakness. That is a materially more constructive surface than the prior week. Underneath it, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) net flow deteriorated to roughly −$1.3 billion on the week, running the mirror image of a bottom signal at monthly scale; Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) deteriorated to −16.7%, deeper underwater; and no Short-Term-Holder is chasing mature supply from long-term hands.

The share of supply in profit fell to 48.0%, below half and into capitulation territory; the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (RPLR) breached its low band to −1.2, loss realization firmly dominant; spot CVD sits at −$204 million, sellers dominating the tape; and the options 25-delta skew rose above its high band with the 14-day put/call ratio at a one-year high, downside protection firmly bid.

Selling pressure is being absorbed by patient capital, a floor being tested, not built. That final washout is the flush Hayloo’s book is positioned to harvest, and it poked through this week — the $57,779 low was inside the dealer long-gamma zone — and got bought back above $60,000.

Hayloo’s tape carries a genuine two-way tension into next week, and we hold it rather than resolve it. The break below the $60,000-to-$64,000 gamma band is the flush setup the bears wait on; the same tape shows crowded shorts and bids stacking underneath, which is the squeeze setup that runs against the bears.

🔴 This week’s on-chain read is accumulation beneath a deteriorating substrate — a floor tested, not built, the dollar the dominant tell against it.

Hayloo’s Perp Book

Size and direction. Our perp book is net short. Wallet equity is up 5.8% from last week.

Funding rate carry — income, not cost. The smoothed carry governor reads plus $200,631 annualized, +2.08% of equity — income.

Next levels that fire. Downside: $55,000 Bitcoin and $55 Solana, both Long Add / Short Take-Profit; on contact the Bitcoin leg stages across the $55,000/$50,000/$45,000 ladder rather than loading at the first level, and the heavy short-harvest and long-build target is a $45,000 wick. Upside: $77’500 Bitcoin True Market Mean (TMM). The reclaim that reverses any of it is a weekly close back above the $60,000-to-$64,000 gamma floor and the $62,500 200-week moving average with spot demand attached.

Position vs. thesis. The book is positioned for a bear-continuation.

🔴 Hayloo’s perp book is net short, collateralized by spot long.

Macro Tape

The dollar is the whole macro story, and this week Kevin Warsh made his global debut without softening it. He killed forward guidance, said prices are still too high, and planted the flag on 2% — the hawkish anchor, not a pivot.

What eased was the near-term hike bet, and it eased because the oil-driven inflation scare is fading, not because Warsh blinked; the relief bounce is the market letting a little air out of a hike it had half-priced.

May headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation ran 4.1%, a three-year high catching the peak of the oil-war spike, with core landing in line at 3.4%, and spending and income both ran +0.7% — the firm real economy pulling money out of financial assets that the liquidity read now leans on.

The reaction function underneath survived the week intact and got harder to dislodge: the Supreme Court ruled the Fed’s independence stands, insulating the Warsh reaction function from the White House, and Citadel Securities — the firm that sees everyone’s order flow — told the market it is underpricing his determination.

The dollar took the message and holds it. It sits near 101, easing from a 15-month high after its best month in a year, with the yen at a four-decade low, broken through 162, and Tokyo talking up prior intervention — the dollar-up, everyone-else-takes-the-adjustment regime at its sharp end. That regime transmits straight through to the book: dollar-yen and Bitcoin are running near-perfectly inverse, a correlation around −0.9, so every leg down in the yen is a headwind on Bitcoin. This is capital coming home to the dollar, not new money entering the system.

🔴 This week’s macro tape holds the risk-off regime, and the dollar is the dominant weight on the board.

Geopolitical Tape

The worst weekend since the Iran deal ran two nights of US strikes, Iran hitting Bahrain and Kuwait, and a tanker struck — and it still resolved toward talks by Sunday, with envoys to Doha. The talks are indirect, nobody in the same room, no deal on the table; Iran’s own line is that it controls the strait and charges tolls, by force if it comes to that.

That is the asymmetry sitting under the ceasefire: the strait is cheap to close on one drone campaign, expensive to reopen.

🟠 This week’s geopolitical landscape remains unresolved, with the strait one drone campaign from repricing.

The Oil Tape

WTI printed a four-month low near $68 on Doha “positive progress” and a swing back to oversupply, leaving the spot price at $69.60 — 2.4% below its 100-week moving average at $71.31. Iranian exports have run past 40 million barrels since the blockade lifted, Russian shipments sit at records, four Gulf producers pump near three-quarters of pre-war volume, and Morgan Stanley cut its forecast twice in two weeks.

🟢 This week’s Oil Price broke below a still-rising line.

The Equity Tape

The equity surface is the key macro sword over Bitcoin, and this week it did two things at once. The structural picture is intact and publishable: the 50-, 100-, and 200-day lines are all rising with price at or above them, and persistence sits at zero at every horizon — the S&P 500 is currently above all four of its moving averages. The tactical line rolled over underneath that: the 20-day is now falling, with price spending 67% of the trailing month below it, the chop eroding the short-horizon smoother even as the longer lines rise and the cushion above them compresses. The last severe-stress pillar in reach — the run of consecutive closes below the 20-day — reset to zero when the index reclaimed its 20-day on June 30 and held it through the July 1 chip washout, a session that took Micron and Sandisk down 10% and got absorbed.

Equities printed their best quarter in six years into quarter-end, the equal-weight S&P set a record the same day the cap-weighted index closed below its 20-day for a fifth session — a rotation out of chips, not a market breaking.

🟢 This week’s equity structure holds

Hard Assets

The debasement basket flushed together, and that is oil collapsing and gold coming down at once, not a flight to or from real assets. BTC/Gold sits at 14.54× — below the 20× early-bull confirmation, the two hard-money trades still pulling apart.

Gold fell 14% on the quarter, its worst since 2013, a temporary Chinese-liquidity squeeze plus dollar strength.

Gold/Oil, meanwhile, blew out to 58.78× because oil collapsed, not because gold fell — the mechanism wants gold lower to close the gap and is not getting it.

The Strategy reflexive loop crossed a structural line this week. STRC trades at $87.46, $12.54 below the par it was sold at. On June 29 the company opened the door to selling up to $1.25 billion of that Bitcoin, paired with buybacks and a fatter dividend, and the market took the cash-and-backstop read as a floor for exactly one day before un-taking it. The treasury cohort that was a permanent bid is now a supply question mark. We do not escalate the loop — announced selling is not printed selling — but it is no longer substrate; it is on the tape.

🔴 This week’s hard-asset ratios stay bearish; the whole debasement basket flushed to the dollar, and the treasury cohort turned from bid to supply.

Liquidity Tape

Aggregate Global Liquidity edged to $194.0 trillion with its three-month rate accelerating to +13.6%, and it means less than it looks, because it is the People’s Bank of China resuming net injections — the first since the Middle East conflict began, timed to the US–Iran memorandum — plus a MOVE index pinned at 67 against a March average near 90, lifting the collateral multiplier.

Under it, the Shadow Monetary Base decelerated for a second consecutive weekly print, to +3.9% from +5.6% on the three-month rate, and its twelve-month rate crossed into negative territory at −0.1%.

🔴 This week’s liquidity tape points to risk-off; the rate that leads just went negative.

Forward Thesis

The read for the next four to twelve weeks is unchanged: lower-to-choppy, with the deepest price-headwind window still late August 2026 — the late-May Shadow Monetary Base trough plus Howell’s roughly thirteen-week transmission lag, a window the three-month improvement does not move.

The flush is gated on a macro catalyst strong enough to break the dealer long-gamma floor — which Bitcoin poked through this week and got bought right back, the definition of a floor tested, not built.

One reflexive risk carried in Hard Assets belongs on this board too. Strategy’s funding loop crossed a structural line: the company opened the door to selling up to $1.25 billion of its Bitcoin against a $14 billion unrealized loss, and a miner moved coins out to fund a data-center pivot — the treasury cohort that was a permanent bid turning into a supply question. We do not escalate it — announced selling is not printed selling — but it has moved from substrate to the tape, and it resolves the day the loop prints a sale or the discount to par closes.

What would change our mind, each against its current value:

1. Shadow Monetary Base three-month annualized clearly positive and non-base-effect, with the twelve-month rate turning back up at the same time.

2. The RPLR sustained above 2.0 across multiple weeks, with confirmed accumulation.

3. A clean weekly close above $64,000 with sustained spot demand.

4. Exchange-Traded Fund inflows of $1.5 billion a week for two consecutive weeks.

5. Ten consecutive S&P 500 closes below the 20-day moving average — the escalate side.

If two of these appear at once, we re-evaluate the book on the next weekly.

Watchlist

- BTC at $57,779–$58,000 — the intra-week low, inside the dealer long-gamma zone; the flush poked through here and got bought back. A weekly close that holds below, with Exchange-Traded Fund flows still bleeding, is the second-leg confirmation. Monitoring escalates to daily on re-approach.

- BTC $60,000–$64,000 gamma floor / $62,500 200-week moving average — the reclaim level. A weekly close back above, with Binance Cumulative Volume Delta joining Coinbase, is the relax-side signal.

- SOL at $90 — the first Solana resistance above the blended short. A sympathy rip with Bitcoin or a continued Outperform run puts it in play.

- ETF flow magnitude and breadth — running the mirror image at −$4.51 billion in June, the record month; two weeks of $1.5 billion-plus net inflows forces re-evaluation.

- Howell’s SMB next print and the MOVE index — the three-month rate is +3.9% and decelerating, the twelve-month negative; a three-month move below −3% sustained escalates the read. A MOVE re-spike above 80 reverses the multiplier expansion carrying the headline liquidity number.

- GOLD/OIL — contracting toward 20 or blowing out beyond 60? The gap widened to 58.78× on oil collapsing, not gold falling.

- STRC and Strategy — the reflexive loop at $87.46, $12.54 below par, $14 billion underwater, the sell door now open; printed selling, not announced, is the escalation.

- BTC.D — dominance below the 100-week moving average still needs directional input, and now disagrees with the basket’s own beta on which way share is moving.

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This Week, Alts Stopped Paying Tax; Solana Didn’t

Hayloo INC. — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:08:46 GMT

Tape of the Week

This week, major Altcoins stopped paying the Alt tax. Only Solana, 828 days into the longest Outperform run Hayloo’s Beta Desk tracks, still pays a tax on Bitcoin. Ethereum, XRP, and the broader Altcoin basket (TOTAL3) had more upside than downside on Bitcoin this week.

The dollar broke above its 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since April. Glassnode’s read of what that means for Bitcoin is blunt: the dollar’s reassertion is the dominant bearish signal on the board, and the recovery so far is an equity story Bitcoin has been left out of.

Bitcoin ran toward $66,000 on the Iran de-escalation early in the week and gave every dollar of it back, sitting inside the dealer long-gamma floor at $60,000 to $64,000. Underneath the price, the stress vector that ran the tape for two months rotated out: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude collapsed to a three-month low, dropping the oil price from +27% over a rising long-term average to +1.3% over a flat one, while a global chip selloff put the S&P 500 back below its 20-day Moving Average. The pressure did not leave the markets. It changed address.

The Altcoin Tax

Beta is how much of Bitcoin’s daily move a coin captures. Above 1, it amplifies Bitcoin; below 1, it lags. Split that capture by direction — what a coin grabs on Bitcoin’s up-days (up-capture, β⁺) against what it gives back on the down-days (down-capture, β⁻) — and the gap between the two is the asymmetry. When down-capture runs heavier, a coin is paying a tax on Bitcoin: it over-drops relative to how it rallies. This week, major Alts stopped paying that tax. Only Solana, 828 days into the longest Outperform run Hayloo’s Beta Desk tracks, still pays a tax on Bitcoin. Ethereum, XRP, and the broader Altcoin basket (TOTAL3) outperformed Bitcoin this week.

The broad altcoin basket (TOTAL3) sits at a 0.59 sixty-day beta, Trailing for 198 days, gap a favorable +0.08, flag clear — the steady line.

XRP has jumped to 1.09 and into Outperform on its ninth day, gap +0.37, flag firing.

ETH reads 1.21 with a Trailing sixty-day tag but a split across windows, gap +0.13, flag firing.

SOL tops the set at 1.33, Outperform for 828 days, the only negative gap at −0.08, flag firing. Three alerts, one clear.

◆ FOCUS COIN

SOL — 828 days, and the first crack

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, SOL captured 114 cents; of every dollar it lost, it gave back 122 cents — 1.1× more downside than upside. SOL is the only major altcoin still paying the Bitcoin tax. The gap was at its widest at −0.41 on June 13 and snapped to −0.08, tripping the contraction flag, while the sixty-day beta moved 0.20 over 20 days and tripped the fast-move condition alongside it. Honesty note: the up-capture leg is the noisy one this week — its standard error is about a third of its own size — so the gap is clearly closing, but its exact width is soft.

Sixty-day beta 1.33, Outperform for 828 days — the longest run on Hayloo’s Beta desk, and past the 331-day median for this regime by a wide margin.

After more than two years of holding, the asymmetry gap is closing and the beta is repricing fast. The relationship is shifting fast enough now that any read more than about three weeks out is on shaky ground.

🟠 This week’s Solana Tax is on watch.

TOTAL3 — the broad altcoin basket

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, the basket captured 53 cents; of every dollar it lost, it gave back 45 cents — 1.2× more upside than downside. The downside-heavy asymmetry that ran for weeks has flipped, and this is a second straight week of up-capture edging down-capture. The gap held near +0.08, with no contraction and no turn signal. The relationship is steady, and today’s read holds out to the usual horizon.

Sixty-day beta 0.59, Trailing for 198 days — far past the 51-day median run for this regime, and the longest-running, lowest-beta name on the desk.

🟠 This week’s Alt Tax is on watch.

XRP – 1.4 more upside than downside

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, XRP captured 122 cents; of every dollar it lost, it gave back 86 cents — 1.4× more upside than downside, squarely the favorable side. Last week’s contraction signal has passed: the gap is now widening on the favorable side, β⁺ over β⁻ at +0.37, not closing toward zero.

Sixty-day beta 1.09, Outperform on its ninth day. The flag fires on the beta itself: it jumped 0.20 over the trailing 20 days, from 0.89 to 1.09, the fast repricing the backtest flags around turns. The beta sits about 0.05 above its 1.05 Outperform boundary — clear of last week’s knife-edge, but only nine days old.

🟢 This week’s XRP Tax is chill.

ETH – plain symmetric capture

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, ETH captured 133 cents; of every dollar it lost, it gave back 121 cents — 1.1× more upside than downside. The gap net-contracted from +0.48 to +0.13 over the trailing 20 days, but the path was no clean glide: it spiked in early June, bottomed at +0.08, and bounced. One honesty note: at +0.13 the gap sits inside both standard errors, so the conditional split is statistically indistinguishable from plain symmetric capture this week.

ETH carries only two regimes in its whole history — Trailing and Outperform; no Decoupled, no Extreme.

🟠 This week’s Ethereum Tax is on watch.

On-Chain Tape: The Dollar Is the Whole Story Now

Bitcoin trades at a discount of more than 20% to its True Market Mean (TMM) of 77, 000, a discount that widens as price keeps falling, and the 90 − day average of net realized profit and loss is−205 million a day: the chain is deeply loss-dominant.

But the short-term-holder cost basis declined to $71,400, which means new buyers are accumulating below the mean—a constructive step—and the Coinbase spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) flipped positive, the cleanest tell that the U.S. institutional bid is testing a return to Bitcoin at a discount. That is the single most important crack in the bear, and a reversal of last week’s picture, when Binance carried the bid and Coinbase was absent.

We flag it as exactly that: a flip from Binance to Coinbase, not a reversal.

Binance’s CVD has turned negative; the exchange-traded fund (ETF) bleed runs a sixth week. Derivatives are catching down to spot—open interest spiking, futures CVD turning down, funding easing—the early signature of the violent flush our still net-short book is positioned to harvest.

But dealers are long gamma at $60,000 to $64,000, a near-term floor the flush has to break, and the break is gated on a macro catalyst, not an on-chain one. Glassnode’s conclusion from this week is the one that matters most: the dollar’s reassertion above its 200-day average is the dominant bearish signal for Bitcoin, and the recovery so far is a story Bitcoin has been left out of.

🔴 This week’s on-chain read is early bottoming without confirmation, the dollar the dominant tell against it.

— Capital Flow Analyst (Priya Sandoval) · Fundamental Research Analyst (Charlotte Donovan)

Hayloo’s Perp Book

Size and direction. Hayloo’s perp book remains roughly 201.6 BTC short net (−12.6 million at mark)and 36, 720 SOL short net (−2.6 million at mark), against a BTC reserve that is net-long. The de-escalation bounce that bled the book nearly 13% last week round-tripped, the market did the work.

Next levels that fire. Downside: $55,000 Bitcoin and $55 Solana. The reclaim that reverses any of it is a weekly close above the $77,000 True Market Mean with spot demand attached.

Position vs. thesis. The book is positioned for the bear-continuation read; the flush that does the heavy work is gated on a macro catalyst strong enough to break the dealer long-gamma floor.

— Lead Trader (Jordi Federer)

🔴 Hayloo’s perp book remains net short.

Macro Tape

Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting removed the easing bias, and the 2026 median flipped from a cut to a hike. The dollar took the message: through 101 to a 13-month high, above its 200-day average for the first time since April, the yen pinned at a 40-year low with Tokyo’s finance minister on the phone to Washington. Underneath, U.S. factory output ran to a four-year high with output prices still climbing—a firm real economy is where the money is going. This is capital coming home to the dollar, not new money entering the system.

🔴 This week’s macro tape remains risk-off; the dollar reassertion is the dominant force on the board.

— Chief Macro Strategist (Theodore Brennan)

Geopolitical Tape

The war the market traded as demand destruction has stood down. After a fortnight of the strait slamming shut and reopening on alternating headlines, the United States and Iran spent a Sunday at a Swiss resort and came out with a 60-day road map; the United Arab Emirates is pumping at roughly 85% of pre-war volume and the shipping regulator has cleared tankers to leave.

🟠 This week’s geopolitical stress stood down on the war and is rebuilding, slower, on the dollar.

— Geopolitical Intelligence Officer (Margaux Lindqvist)

The Commodity Tape

WTI crude fell to a three-month low as the Strait of Hormuz reopened on paper, leaving it +1.3% above its 100-week moving average—and that average is now flat, identical to its level thirteen weeks ago. The supply side has not actually cleared—Iran still says it sets the terms at Hormuz, the tankers run at a discount to China, and the energy-supply surface keeps widening with refinery strikes in Russia—but the market refuses to price any of it.

🟠 This week’s Oil Price refuses to price a complicated supply side.

— Hard Asset Strategist (Marcus Vasquez) · Geopolitical Intelligence Officer (Margaux Lindqvist)

The Equity Tape

The semiconductor trade that held risk-on upright took two real days of damage before steadying—Korea’s index down 9.99% and circuit-broken, the Nikkei off 3%, the U.S. hyperscalers red—and the S&P 500 closed back below its 20-day moving average.

🟠 This week’s equity pillar keeps escalating our marketwide read.

— Capital Flow Analyst (Priya Sandoval) · Chief Macro Strategist (Theodore Brennan)

Hard Assets

BTC/Gold at 15.54× sits well below the 20× early-bull confirmation and a universe from the 40× cycle-peak reference—the two hard-money trades still pulling apart. Gold/Oil held at 55.82×, far above the 15-to-25 health band, and it held there due to oil collapsing and gold holding instead. The dominant signal is still Chinese liquidity-engine deterioration, not a flight to or from real assets.

🔴 This week’s hard-asset ratios remain bearish, and the gold-leads-oil mechanism remains unhealthy.

— Hard Asset Strategist (Marcus Vasquez)

Liquidity Tape

Global liquidity is up $190 billion on the week according to Michael Howell, led by the PBoC net injections. The Shadow Monetary Base three-month rate jumped to +5.6% from +2.7%, the twelve-month rate sits at +1.4% below its January high, and Global Liquidity’s own annual rate slipped to +7.7% from above 8%. The lift in the headline is the volatility-suppression trade—Treasury-bond volatility pinned near its lows—not money creation.

🔴 This week’s liquidity tape points to risk-off.

— Global Liquidity Director (Julian Harlow)

Forward Thesis

The next four to twelve weeks read lower-to-choppy, with the deepest price-headwind window in late August— May’s Shadow Monetary Base trough plus roughly thirteen-week transmission lag. The stress vector rotated from a geopolitical premium that is now spent to an AI-capex equity crack that is just beginning; the dollar’s reassertion is the dominant force leaving Bitcoin behind. The structural long thesis for 2029 to 2030 is intact; this is a tactical short for the contraction.

One reflexive risk stays on the board and is worth its own line. Strategy’s funding loop is straining: STRC closed at $87.31, still $12.69 below the par it was sold at, with the company roughly 17% underwater on its Bitcoin stack and buying on common stock for a third straight week because the preferred door is shut. The runway is roughly seven and a half months. The loop has not broken; it is straining. It resolves the day STRC returns to par or the loop snaps.

What would change our mind, each against its current value:

Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) turning clearly positive and non-base-effect, with the twelve-month rate rising at the same time. It is +5.6% on the three-month read, but PBoC-driven and the twelve-month rate is falling.
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (RPLR) holding above 2.0 across multiple weeks. It is −0.6.
A clean weekly close above $77,000 with Binance’s bid joining Coinbase’s. Coinbase flipped positive this week; Binance went the other way.
ETF inflows of 1.5 billion a week for two consecutive weeks. – Flows are bleeding.
Ten consecutive S&P 500 closes below the 20-day average—the escalate side. The counter is at 2/10 on a fresh streak; this one fires toward action before it fails toward comfort.
The repatriation flow flipping to genuine net-new global liquidity—U.S. inflows persisting and broadening while Howell’s liquidity turns back up, simultaneously. His twelve-month measures are falling; the two do not co-occur.

If two of these appear at once, we re-evaluate the book on the next weekly. Today none is close, and the one partial crack we flag—Coinbase’s bid returning—is one venue, not a regime.

Watchlist

BTC at $77,000—True Market Mean
BTC at $53,400—Realized Price
The S&P 500 20-day Moving Average—The test of whether the chip leg keeps bleeding.
Bitcoin Funding Rates—the +2.79% income in Hayloo’s book decaying.
ETF flow magnitude and breadth—the Grayscale-led persistent outflow against the Coinbase-CVD-flip contra-tell; Binance joining the bid is the breadth condition, and two weeks of $1.5 billion-plus net inflows forces re-evaluation.
Howell’s SMB next print and the MOVE index—a clearly-positive, non-base-effect SMB with the twelve-month rate rising would be the first real engine crack; a MOVE re-spike above 80 reverses the volatility-suppression lift carrying the headline liquidity number.
GOLD/OIL—contracting toward 20 or expanding beyond 50?
STRC and Strategy—the reflexive loop straining at $12.69 below par; a par reclaim or a loop break.
BTC.D—dominance below the 100-week moving average, needing directional input.
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The Hayloo Unchained Team

Chief Macro Strategist—Theodore Brennan. Macroeconomic cycles, central bank policy, growth and recession dynamics, sovereign debt, currency regimes. Flags regime shifts as they materialize.

Geopolitical Intelligence Officer—Margaux Lindqvist. Geopolitical risk, capital flow implications of conflict and alliance shifts, sanctions, resource competition, regime stability. Maps geopolitical events to capital flow implications.

Hard Asset Strategist—Marcus Vasquez. Responsible for identifying dollar-devaluation mispricing. Surfaces gold-denominated reads when the dollar regime shows signs of inflection.

Inflation & Real Asset Analyst—Sienna Whitfield. Assets priced against inflation. CPI, PPI, breakevens, real yields, commodity structures. Flags when nominal gains are real losses. Ensures harvest decisions are evaluated against real returns, not nominal.

Global Liquidity Director—Julian Harlow. Liquidity cycles, central bank balance sheets, cross-border credit creation. Anchors the team’s months-to-years time horizon.

Capital Flow Analyst—Priya Sandoval. Cross-asset flows, fund positioning, ETF mechanics, derivatives positioning, futures term structure. Tracks where new liquidity routes, surfaces flow shifts that contradict the standing synthesis.

Technical Analyst—Lukas Marchetti. Price action, structure, and pattern—calibrated to match the liquidity cycle timeframe. Technicals are treated as lagging confirmation of forward-looking signals. Divergence between technicals and macro thesis is expected and discussed, not resolved by hierarchy.

Fundamental Research Analyst—Charlotte Donovan. Asset-level fundamentals, network economics, supply dynamics, miner behavior, adoption curves. Tracks supply-side dynamics—LTH/STH cohorts, miner state, on-chain cost-basis structure.

Lead Trader—Jordi Federer. Domain: the book itself—capital allocation across perp positions and the spot collateral reserve; entry, harvest, and restructure calls; risk tolerance and conviction-sizing at execution. Hayloo is unchained by him.

Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.

The Altcoin Tax

Jordi Federer – Hayloo INC. — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 19:49:45 GMT

Five obsessives behind a spreadsheet have worked out, to four decimal places, exactly how much your favorite altcoin ETF fleeces you every time Bitcoin clears its throat. They will not — under any circumstances, and believe me I tried — tell you what to buy.

If you hold anything in crypto that isn’t Bitcoin there is a tax you are paying right now, this very second. It works like this. Bitcoin stumbles three percent on a Tuesday and your altcoin is down five before you’ve finished your coffee. Bitcoin rips three percent the day after and your altcoin, sluggish and hungover, manages two. Heads the house wins. Tails the house wins by less. Stretch those two crooked coin-flips across a few years and they compound into a quiet, grinding levy on everyone who ever decided Bitcoin was too boring to get rich.

Everybody in crypto feels this tax. Almost nobody has bothered to measure it. So we went looking for the right people who can.

They call the thing they measure beta — the same beta the finance professors have muttered about since the 1960s, the number that says how hard one thing swings when another thing moves. They ran this beta across the entire altcoin market — every coin that isn’t Bitcoin or Ethereum — over nearly a decade of daily closes, through two complete crypto manias and two terminal Bitcoin graveyards.

Beta is the exchange rate on your pain.

_{The heresies}Four things everyone got wrong

Our beta desk got built because somebody upstream had been estimating joint cross-margin liquidation numbers based on a single, symmetric beta — one number, plugged in like a thermostat setting, as if a coin behaved exactly the same on the way down as on the way up. A backtest took that assumption out behind the shed. It turned out the old number was wrong in four separate, structural ways.

Beta is asymmetric — in our sample, the tax on the down-move was systematically fatter than on the up-move.
Beta is not a constant at all but a thing that cycles through distinct regimes.
Beta carries genuine measurement error, a fact the old single-number approach simply pretended away.
Bitcoin dominance, the dashboard gauge that gets treated as a crystal ball for the next move, turns out on the evidence to be nothing of the kind. It’s a rear-view mirror. More on that ghost later.

_{The Math · 01}
What beta actually is

Returns are daily log returns. Beta is the slope of an Ordinary Least Squares regression of the altcoin’s returns on Bitcoin’s — how far the alt moves, on average, per unit move in Bitcoin.

r_t = ln( P_t / P_{t−1} )            # daily log return
β = Cov( r_alt , r_BTC ) / Var( r_BTC )   # the OLS slope

The desk computes it two ways. The symmetric beta uses every day in the window. The conditional betas split on the sign of Bitcoin’s return:

β⁺ = slope on days where r_BTC > 0   # up-market beta
β⁻ = slope on days where r_BTC < 0   # down-market beta
Asymmetry ≡ β⁺ − β⁻

Symmetric beta runs at three windows — 30, 60 and 120 days. The conditional pair runs at 60 days only: shorter windows don’t hold enough up-days or down-days inside them to estimate each slope before the error swamps the signal.

_{The machine}
How you find a regime without guessing

Most people who talk about market “regimes” mean it as a vibe — risk-on, risk-off, the usual hand-waving. The Beta Desk refuses to eyeball it. Instead they take a decade of rolling beta readings, pour them out into a histogram, and ask the statistics how many distinct humps are actually in the pile. The tool is a Gaussian Mixture Model — picture laying a handful of bell curves over the heap until they snap onto the natural clusters — and the number of bell curves is not chosen by the analyst’s taste. It’s chosen by a scoring rule, and the rule has a temperament: it is a miser.

The naive move is to let the score pick whatever number of clusters “fits best,” full stop — but more clusters almost always fit better, the same way more crayons always color more, by shattering real groups into meaningless sub-groups. So the desk climbs instead of optimizing. Start at two clusters. Add a third only if it earns its keep by a decisive margin; the instant a step fails to clear that bar, stop, and keep the last honest number. They deliberately sweep all the way up to seven clusters — not because they’ll ever use seven, but to make the stopping point visible, to watch the over-fitting begin and then refuse to follow it off the cliff.

For the altcoin market (TOTAL3), the honest number came out to four. Two big regimes do most of the living: Trailing, the dominant lazy state where alts under-move Bitcoin, which is where the market spends about two-thirds of its life; and Outperform, the high-energy state where alts amplify Bitcoin’s every twitch, about a third. And then, out at the edges, two ghosts. A regime they call Decoupled, where alts stop tracking Bitcoin almost entirely. And one called Extreme Outperform, the blow-off, where alts move at violent multiples of the parent. Each of those two ghosts accounts for roughly two percent of all recorded history. Each corresponds to exactly one episode the market has ever actually visited.

The fact that the market went to the extremes at all, even once, is Hayloo’s house position — that is the signal, not the noise.

Most shops would round those ghosts off as outliers and smooth them into the nearest neighbor. Hayloo’s Beta Desk treats them as sacred. The fact that the market went there at all, even once, is Hayloo’s house position — that is the signal, not the noise. A regime that has happened a single time in ten years is, statistically, almost nothing. It is also a flare fired from the exact top and the exact bottom of a cycle. The Hayloo desk’s whole philosophy lives in these extreme tensions, and we have a name for the trap of ignoring these signals: smoothing away the only thing worth seeing.

_{The Math · 02}
Finding the regimes, with a miser for a judge

Regimes are defined on the distribution of the 60-day symmetric beta. Fit Gaussian Mixture Models for k = 2…7 components. Select k by a parsimony-sequential reading of the Bayesian Information Criterion:

start at k = 2
step up to k+1  ⟺  BIC drops by ≥ 10   # strong-evidence margin
stop at the first step that fails  →  keep the last accepted k

The selected k is the most granular model every step up to it earned — not the global BIC minimum, which over-fits by splitting real clusters into sub-components. A candidate fit is thrown out as degenerate if any component pairs weight < 5% with an extreme spread:

reject if  weight < 5%  AND  ( σ < 0.05  OR  σ > 0.4 )
   σ < 0.05 → a delta-spike on a handful of points
   σ > 0.4  → a sponge soaking up outliers

A low-weight component with a healthy σ is a real tail regime and is kept — the weight gate is what separates a degeneracy from a genuine rare state. Boundaries between regimes are the Bayes-optimal cuts: the beta values where adjacent weighted Gaussians cross densities. Labels are assigned by cluster mean, anchored on β = 1: Decoupled (≤ 0), Trailing (< 1), Outperform (> 1), Extreme Outperform (≫ 1).

_{The brake}This is only the beginning, and we say so, out loud

It is Hayloo’s Beta Desk’s job not to sound confident, but to openly admit doubt. This is Hayloo’s house dialect, and it is enforced. The regime machine I just described could, in the wrong hands, become a hype cannon. The phrase “the data robustly shows” is effectively banned from our desk.

In an industry that sells certainty by the kilo, the Beta Desk’s entire product is calibrated doubt.

Crypto is a stumbling child. Our backtest catalog of major market turning points runs to something between ten and twenty events per type — a sample so thin that the standard move of bootstrapping a ninety-five-percent confidence interval is simply off the table, so we say so, out loud. We will confess the limits of our own error bars: the standard errors we report quietly assume each day is independent of the last, which for crypto requires a stricter calculation. We volunteer this — unprompted. In an industry that sells certainty by the kilo, Hayloo’s Beta Desk’s entire product is calibrated doubt.

_{The Math · 03}How much to trust it

The desk’s defensibility test for any estimate is the relative standard error:

SE(β) / |β|   <  30%   → defensible
              <  20%   → comfortable

Symmetric beta clears this easily — under 10% at the 60-day window. The conditional betas sit tighter against the rail: roughly 13% on β⁻ and 21% on β⁺ at 60 days. That is precisely why 60 is the chosen window — short enough to respond to a turn, long enough to keep the down-day and up-day subsamples estimable.

And the honesty tax on their own numbers: the reported standard errors assume serial independence. True Heteroskedasticity-and-Autocorrelation-Consistent errors would run an estimated 20–30% wider. With ~10–20 events per inflection type and the tail regimes often N = 1, 95% bootstrap intervals are not computed — and that caveat ships with every output that leans on them.

_{The refusal}
The number they will never give you

Which brings me to the thing that nearly broke the forming of Hayloo’s Beta Desk. I asked these math-dudes — point blank — whether we were near a bottom. Whether the altcoin tax was about to spike. Whether we should, you know, buy more aggressively?

The room went quiet. The Beta Desk does not forecast. This is the spine of our whole operation. Our signal is asymmetry contraction, the moment the gap between the up-beta and the down-beta starts narrowing toward zero — and historically it has shown up between twenty and sixty days before major turns.

Hayloo’s Beta Desk hands you the shape of the risk you’re standing in, names its own uncertainty about that shape, and then — this is the part the industry cannot comprehend — it stops talking.

But Hayloo’s Beta Desk is fanatical that this is a regime-change tell, not a direction call. It fires before tops and before bottoms with equal enthusiasm and tells you absolutely nothing about which one is coming. It says: something is about to change. It does not say: buy. Or sell. Hayloo’s Beta Desk hands you the shape of the risk you’re standing in, names its own uncertainty about that shape, and then — this is the part the industry cannot comprehend — it stops talking.

_{The Math · 04}The only thing close to a warning — and the dominance ghost

A confirmed inflection is a price extremum that reverses by at least a swept threshold (25% on Bitcoin and the altcoin index, in this sample) from the prior confirmed extremum, with ≥ 21 days between candidates; the threshold is tuned per series to land turns ~80–120 days apart. At each catalogued top and bottom the desk records the full beta state at T−60, −40, −20, −10, −5 and 0.

pre-turn signature:  | β⁺ − β⁻ |  narrowing toward 0
appears 20–60 days ahead of BOTH peaks AND troughs
→ regime-change signature, NOT a direction signal

And the rear-view mirror everyone mistakes for a crystal ball: Bitcoin-dominance turns, far from leading price, come in at a median lag of roughly −10 to 0 days against price turns, with a standard deviation north of 30 days. Coincident at best. Useless as a standalone forecast. Useful only as confirmation, when it happens to cluster with the beta and the price all turning at once.

Bitcoin-dominance turns, far from leading price, come in at a median lag of roughly −10 to 0 days against price turns, with a standard deviation north of 30 days.

That discipline runs all the way down into how we work at Hayloo’s Beta Desk. Our governing law — the one principle we’ll recite like a creed — is that the truth is in the trace: a claim is worth nothing without a record proving it.

You won’t find the dudes from Hayloo’s Beta Desk on a podcast circuit. Their job is not to tell you that something is going to ten dollars, or a hundred, or zero. We measure the tax — the real, structural levy the altcoin market quietly extracts from everyone who isn’t paying attention to the whispers — and we measured it down to a decimal place that would make an accountant blush.

In a genre built entirely on the confident prediction, Hayloo’s Beta Desk might be the most rock-and-roll thing I have ever been able to build.

_{By Jordi Federer · co-owner, Hayloo Unchained Inc.}

Editor’s note

No Bitcoin price was forecast in the making of this article. The Beta Desk does not own a crystal ball. It owns a spreadsheet. These figures reflect the desk’s full-sample measurements; like all of its numbers, they drift as the data grows, and we would insist on telling you so.

Rates Stopped Being a Forecast and Became the Tape

Hayloo INC. — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 23:48:02 GMT

Tape of the Week

The Iran war de-escalated into a signed deal and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell. Michael Howell’s headline liquidity printed a new high at $193.7 trillion while the engine underneath it ran on a base effect and suppressed bond volatility — the FOMC is doing exactly what the new chair will have to: lean hawkish to keep the bond market disciplined.

Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting flipped its 2026 dot plot from a cut to a hike. Crypto fell on it and Hayloo’s net-short book took in roughly $889,000 in a single session. Peace removed a tail risk, but the Fed castrated the catalyst.

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows swung back to outflow as the rate-cut hope died. The buyer that confirms a floor is still missing on every channel we watch, and the Fed just made upside the less likely break.

Hayloo’s Beta Desk measures how the major crypto assets outside Bitcoin move against the king coin, and beneath the surface, the crypto market stopped moving in sync. Bitcoin’s market share keeps falling below its averages, which our desk reads as a broad liquidity drawdown — flagging the scatter without calling the turn.

The next four to twelve weeks read lower-to-choppy into a late-August liquidity-transmission window — and the FOMC made that transmission actionable rather than speculative. We are prepared to buy $55,000 Bitcoin this summer.

Macro Tape

Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held what everyone expected, and then flipped all the hopes for a dovish projection. The 2026 median dot moved from a cut to a hike, with nine of eighteen members now projecting an increase by year-end; the easing bias was stripped from the statement, the 2026 inflation projection was raised to 3.6%, and Warsh declined to submit his own dot at all. The statement ran about 115 words. This is a chair who dislikes forward guidance signaling, on his first day. The S&P fell below its 20-day moving average on the announcement.

The data underneath had been pointing this way all week. May producer prices ran the hottest since November 2022 and electronics-led — the chipflation channel one stage upstream of the consumer — May retail sales beat at +0.9% with a strong control group, and on June 18 Apple’s chief executive confirmed the pass-through out loud, saying prices will rise on memory-chip costs. The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked for the first time since 2023, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) went to a 31-year-high 1.0%, the Bank of England (BoE) held, and Indonesia and the Philippines hiked again to defend their currencies as the yen pressed a 40-year low.

🔴 This week’s macro tape hardened: the dot plot flipped from a cut to a hike, and the central banks tightened through the peace.

— Chief Macro Strategist (Theodore Brennan)

Geopolitical Tape

The United States and Iran signed an interim memorandum on June 18 — a $300 billion package, the oil-export ban lifted, the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen within 30 days — and the shooting stopped. The hard part has not started: the nuclear program, the whole reason for the war, is a 60-day promise to negotiate, Trump has already said he will resume strikes if Iran fails to hold, and Israel kept hitting Lebanon through the week. The war is standing down, but a hawkish Fed sends the dollar higher and forces everyone else to defend, with Indonesia three hikes deep in a month, the Philippines two, and the yen at a 40-year-low threshold.

🟠 This week’s geopolitical landscape is cautiously stabilizing, with the war signed off, but a Fed-driven dollar repatriation taking its place.

— Geopolitical Intelligence Officer (Margaux Lindqvist)

The Commodity Tape

WTI eased to $76.24, but remains +6.8% above a rising 100-week moving average at $71.41, down from about +27% in late May — the war premium is essentially spent, the strait is set to reopen within 30 days, which removes the supply tail the market never paid for in the first place. But the supply side the market is pricing as resolved has more than one hand on it.

🟠 The Oil Price fell significantly, but holds above a rising 100-week moving average.

— Hard Asset Strategist (Marcus Vasquez) · Geopolitical Intelligence Officer (Margaux Lindqvist)

The Equity Tape

The FOMC sent the S&P below the 20-day moving average, the same Fed the whole structural case rests on. A valuation rethink under higher-for-longer rates is the 2022 mechanism, and the chip index that led the prior rout is still bluntly priced.

🟠 Equities begin to price in a hawkish Fed.

— Capital Flow Analyst (Priya Sandoval) · Chief Macro Strategist (Theodore Brennan)

Hard Assets

Gold’s week is the inverse of the war-premium trade, and the FOMC put a cap on it. Gold fell into the conflict, rose into the de-escalation and then softened the moment Warsh turned hawkish. The gold-to-oil ratio sits at 55.48×, still wide and still moving the wrong way — but it is moving because oil keeps falling, not because gold is falling, so the mechanism’s direction is unresolved.

BTC/Gold sits at 14.78×, well below the 20× early-bull confirmation and a universe from the 40× cycle-peak reference — the two hard-money trades still pulling apart, not confirming each other. Nothing in the hard-asset reads challenges the macro view; the dominant signal is liquidity-engine deterioration, not a flight to or from real assets.

🔴 This week’s hard-asset ratios stay bearish, and gold’s bid faded the moment the Fed turned hawkish.

— Hard Asset Strategist (Marcus Vasquez)

Liquidity Tape

Global liquidity edged to a record $193.7 trillion with three-month annualized growth at a seven-month high of 10.7% — and the engine underneath it is weaker than the headline, exactly as it has been for a month. The Shadow Monetary Base (SMB) ticked up to a +2.7% three-month rate, but Howell calls the improvement “largely a base effect” and the twelve-month rate slowed to 0.8%; there is no central-bank pivot under this print, only suppressed bond volatility — the MOVE index of Treasury-bond volatility had fallen below 70 — inflating the collateral value that drives the headline number. The lift is the volatility-suppression trade, not money creation.

Liquidity is past its peak and falling, with gold and crypto leading the turn. Warsh’s first FOMC flipped the dot plot to a hike, stripped the easing bias, raised the inflation projection — and the 10-year backed up toward 4.50% while the MOVE index ticked back to 70.66 on the day.

🔴 This week’s liquidity tape points to risk-off — and the Fed just confirmed there’s no pivot under the headline.

— Global Liquidity Director (Julian Harlow)

On-Chain Tape

Glassnode upgraded the read from capitulation to “a market in repair,” and the upgrade is real but unconfirmed. Bitcoin continues to trade to a discount to the True Market Mean (TMM) of $77,200, Short-Term Holder profitability recovered while staying below breakeven, with that cohort’s cost basis near $72,600 still overhead.

Glassnode’s own framing is that the recovery off the early-June low was “repricing the absence of a headwind” — the war premium leaving — not demand arriving, and the named conditions for a regime turn are explicit and unmet: reclaim the TMM at $77,200, push MVRV back above 1.0, and turn Realized Capitalization positive on the 90-day horizon, which sits down 1.45% and decelerating rather than inflecting.

The flow scorecard reads the same shape and lands on “a consolidation base, not a reversal” — selling pressure paused, buying pressure unconfirmed. The spot ETFs swung back to net outflow. The bid is still the missing piece — spot order flow near breakeven on a passive Binance bid, the Coinbase and US-institutional bid absent — while the supply side keeps working against the bounce: Bhutan moved another 533 Bitcoin to Binance, extending sovereign selling past 10,000 coins since last June, and Grayscale moved 1,863 to Coinbase the same day. A market this primed moves fast in whichever direction demand finally picks; it has not picked, and the Fed just made a case for more downside.

🔴 This week’s on-chain read is no recovery without a buyer.

— Capital Flow Analyst (Priya Sandoval) · Fundamental Research Analyst (Charlotte Donovan)

The Beta Desk

When altcoins stop moving together

The Beta Desk · Hayloo Unchained · week of June 16, 2026

Hayloo’s Beta Desk measures how crypto assets move against Bitcoin — not their price, but their beta: how much of each Bitcoin move they capture on the way up, and how much they give back on the way down. This week the four stopped agreeing.

They sit in three different regimes: TOTAL3 — the broad basket of altcoins outside Bitcoin and Ethereum — has trailed Bitcoin for 190 days, catching 57 cents of each Bitcoin move; SOL has led for 820 days, the longest streak on record; XRP crossed back into Outperform a day ago; and ETH settled into Trailing six days ago, after whipsawing across the line four times the week before. When the market moves as one it is a beta market and everything tracks Bitcoin; when they scatter like this, the individual names matter again.

Bitcoin dominance — the backdrop they all trade against

Bitcoin dominance is 59.0% and falling — 42 days and 2.1 points off its 61.1% peak on May 5, now below both its 50-day (60.1%) and 150-day (59.5%) averages. Falling dominance means Bitcoin is losing share of the whole crypto market and altcoins are gaining it; this is market-wide context, the risk posture of the entire board, not any single coin’s read.

TOTAL3 — even, for the first time in 190 days

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained this week, the basket captured 47 cents; of every dollar it lost, 46 — essentially even, for the first time in this 190-day stretch. The asymmetry gap bottomed at −0.36 on May 31 and closed through zero to +0.02, choppily: a contraction still resolving, not a finished turn.

At 0.57 the 60-day beta sits mid-Trailing, below the regime’s 0.73 centre, a third of the way up the band with no boundary close and all three windows agreeing. Persistence is 190 days, well past the 51-day median run for Trailing — a long stay, and part of why stability reads unstable. The contraction flag fired a third straight week and reached its terminus as the gap crossed zero — the signature the backtest watches before a regime turns, in either direction. It does not call which.

XRP — back across the line

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, XRP captured 102 cents; of every dollar it lost, 87 — 1.2× more upside than downside. After sixty-three days bleeding asymmetrically against Bitcoin, XRP’s gap snapped from −0.26 to +0.14 in two weeks.

At 1.05 the 60-day beta sits just across its 1.05 Trailing cut — one day into Outperform after two months below. The 30-day agrees; the 120-day still reads Trailing, lagging behind. The cross-window split and the two-week asymmetry snap fire the flag, and the fresh crossing with the windows straddling the boundary is why stability reads breaking: a one-day-old lead on a noisy up-day sample, not a settled regime.

ETH — settled, barely

Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, ETH captured 129 cents; of every dollar it lost, 122 — 1.1× more upside, the asymmetry in ETH’s own favour. But the conditional gap sits inside its error bars: statistically even capture, not a measured edge.

At 1.19 the 60-day beta sits at the very top of Trailing, 0.05 below its 1.24 Outperform line, after crossing that line four times the week before. ETH is sitting on its line.

◆ FOCUS THIS WEEK

SOL — the record run shows its first crack

SOL has led Bitcoin for 820 days — the longest Outperform run in the entire dataset, past the prior record of 808 and 2.5× the regime’s 331-day median run. This is the first week the instability flag has fired inside that run: it trips on the movement condition, the 60-day beta jumping 0.16 over twenty trading days — from 1.12 to 1.28 — repricing fast even as the regime itself holds Outperform. Of every dollar Bitcoin gained, SOL captured 105 cents; of every dollar it lost, 123 — 1.2× more downside than upside, and the gap is widening, not closing. For all 820 days SOL has bled this way — it amplifies Bitcoin in both directions but gives back more on the way down than it catches on the way up.

At 1.28 the 60-day beta sits in Outperform — the regime that holds 88% of SOL’s entire history — a third of the way up the band, 0.39 above the Trailing cut and 0.94 below the Extreme line. All three windows agree: 30-, 60-, and 120-day all read Outperform. SOL is a high-beta name that rarely trails Bitcoin. The first flag in the whole run is the first measured sign the relationship is repricing — the rare states, at the extremes, are where this desk watches hardest.

What’s solid, what’s soft. The 60-day betas and the regime reads are firm. The up- and down-captures rest on thinner samples, so this week’s asymmetry flips are one week old, not established, and SOL’s instability flag is its first — a watch. The Bitcoin relationships are moving fast right now; any read more than about three weeks out is on shaky ground. The Beta Desk measures the tape; it does not forecast direction.

🟠 This week’s Beta Desk read: the four scattered into three regimes, every fresh crossing one week old and every stability flag firing — watch, not turn.

Hayloo Unchained · The Beta Desk

Hayloo’s Perp Book

Size and direction. Our perp book remains net short and unchanged: roughly 202 BTC short net and 36,720 SOL short net. Through the week the book bled, down 12.98%, all of it mark-to-market on the net-short legs against the risk-on bounce — then the hawkish FOMC drove Bitcoin to $62,522 and Solana to $68.55, and our account equity rose 10.67% in a single session. We took roughly $889,000 back in a day on the move the short positioning is built to fade.

Funding Rate Carry — income on composition, with a first positive print. The trailing-four-week mean funding carry runs +4.34% of equity.

Next levels that fire. Downside: $55,000 Bitcoin and $55 Solana, both Long Add / Short Take-Profit. Upside: a weekly close above the $77,200 True Market Mean with spot demand attached.

Position vs. thesis. The book is positioned for a bear-continuation, and the week resolved toward it. The de-escalation removed a tail risk and the FOMC castrated the catalyst. The five conditions in the Forward Thesis below govern it.

— Lead Trader (Jordi Federer)

🔴 Hayloo’s perp book is net short.

Forward Thesis

The next four to twelve weeks read lower-to-choppy, with the deepest price-headwind window in late August — late May’s Shadow Monetary Base trough plus Howell’s roughly 13-week transmission lag, a window the base-effect improvement does not move.

Warsh’s FOMC made the liquidity read actionable: a Fed signaling higher-for-longer is the mechanism by which a liquidity cycle past its peak transmits to asset prices, and crypto’s drop on the print is the first installment.

The first decision on a second leg down is $55,000 Bitcoin, bracketed by the $53,900 Realized Price and the $61,000 200-week moving average.

What would change our mind, each against its current value:

Shadow Monetary Base three-month annualized clearly positive on the next print — not a base effect. Now +2.7% but explicitly base-effect-driven with the 12-month rate slowing to 0.8%; not approached.
Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (RPLR) sustained above 2.0 across multiple weeks. Now a 30-day average of 0.53 and a 90-day of 1.10; far below.
A clean weekly close above $77,200 with sustained spot demand, including Coinbase order flow joining Binance in the bid.
ETF inflows of 1.5 billion a week for two consecutive weeks. The week netted a−465 million outflow and the funds swung back to roughly $82 million out on the FOMC; this relax-side crack-watch is moving away from relaxing, not toward it.
Ten consecutive S&P 500 closes below the 20-day moving average. This one fires toward escalation, not relief.

If two of these appear at once, we re-evaluate our book.

— Lead Trader (Jordi Federer)

Watchlist

BTC at $77,200 — True Market Mean
BTC at $53,900 — Realized Price
BTC at $61,000 — 200-week moving average
ETF flow magnitude and breadth — the funds swung back to outflow on the FOMC; Coinbase Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) joining Binance in the bid is the contra-thesis confirmation. Two weeks of $1.5 billion-plus net inflows forces re-evaluation.
Howell’s SMB next print and the MOVE index — a clearly-positive, non-base-effect SMB resets the macro read; a MOVE re-spike above 80 sustained, against 70.66 now after the FOMC tick, reverses the multiplier expansion carrying the headline liquidity number.
WTI, the S&P 20-day average, and the new repatriation texture — the dollar is pulling capital home as central banks tighten through peace.
BTC.D — dominance below the 100-week moving average is a regime that still needs directional input.

_{The Hayloo Unchained Team}

_{Chief Macro Strategist — Theodore Brennan.}_{Macroeconomic cycles, central bank policy, growth and recession dynamics, sovereign debt, currency regimes. Flags regime shifts as they materialize.}

_{Geopolitical Intelligence Officer — Margaux Lindqvist.}_{Geopolitical risk, capital flow implications of conflict and alliance shifts, sanctions, resource competition, regime stability. Maps geopolitical events to capital flow implications.}

_{Hard Asset Strategist — Marcus Vasquez.}_{Responsible for identifying dollar-devaluation mispricing. Surfaces gold-denominated reads when the dollar regime shows signs of inflection.}

_{Inflation & Real Asset Analyst — Sienna Whitfield.}_{Assets priced against inflation. CPI, PPI, breakevens, real yields, commodity structures. Flags when nominal gains are real losses. Ensures harvest decisions are evaluated against real returns, not nominal.}

_{Global Liquidity Director — Julian Harlow.}_{Liquidity cycles, central bank balance sheets, cross-border credit creation. Anchors the team’s months-to-years time horizon.}

_{Capital Flow Analyst — Priya Sandoval.}_{Cross-asset flows, fund positioning, ETF mechanics, derivatives positioning, futures term structure. Tracks where new liquidity routes, surfaces flow shifts that contradict the standing synthesis.}

_{Technical Analyst — Lukas Marchetti.}_{Price action, structure, and pattern — calibrated to match the liquidity cycle timeframe. Technicals are treated as lagging confirmation of forward-looking signals. Divergence between technicals and macro thesis is expected and discussed, not resolved by hierarchy.}

_{Fundamental Research Analyst — Charlotte Donovan.}_{Asset-level fundamentals, network economics, supply dynamics, miner behavior, adoption curves. Tracks supply-side dynamics — LTH/STH cohorts, miner state, on-chain cost-basis structure.}

_{Lead Trader — Jordi Federer.}_{Domain: the book itself — capital allocation across perp positions and the spot collateral reserve; entry, harvest, and restructure calls; risk tolerance and conviction-sizing at execution. Hayloo is unchained by him.}

_{The information is provided for information purposes only and on the basis that it will not be relied upon. No information contained herein constitutes a personal recommendation or investment advice.}

_{The information (including any expressions of opinion or forecast) has been obtained from, or is based on, sources believed by the author to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness and should not be relied upon. The information is provided without obligation on the part of the author and on the understanding that any person who acts upon it or changes his investment position in reliance on it does so entirely at his own risk. The information does not constitute an offer to buy or sell or an invitation to make an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.}

_{Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice.}

_{No representation, warranty or undertaking is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information by the author and no liability is accepted by the author for the accuracy or completeness of such information. In no event will the author be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special, or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information, including, without limitation, any lost profits.}

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Hayloo INC.: Hayloo's Altcoin Tax

XRP's Losses Keep Growing – Hayloo's Altcoin Tax Week 41

XRP: We Gave You This Desk’s Warning Light in September. The Damage it Signaled has Arrived

By the end of this week, there will be a— PAYWALL —below this box.

If you subscribe today,we will grandfather your subscriptionto “forever free”before we shut the door.

The cross-section: XRP Swings Hard to the Downside

Bitcoin dominance

TOTAL3ES: Altcoins Keep Paying a Tax to Bitcoin

ETH: ETH Is the Last Altcoin Charging Bitcoin the Tax

SOL: Falls Harder Than It Climbs

What’s solid, what’s soft

Disclaimer

Ethereum’s Upside Is Shutting Down. – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 40

In a week from now, there will be a — PAYWALL — below this box.

If you subscribe today, we will grandfather your subscription to “forever free” before we shut the door.

The Cross-Section: Three of Four Now Pay the Altcoin Tax

Solana: The Tax Holds

XRP: The Flip Rests on Four Days

The Altcoin Market: The Widest Tax Sits on the Noisiest Numbers

What’s Solid, What’s Soft: Single Days Carry the Week’s Biggest Calls

Disclaimer

ETH’s Fast Window Just Called It a Laggard – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 39

ETH Has Led for 81 Days Against a Median of Four and a Half

The Cross-Section

XRP’s Edge Closed From the Bottom

Solana and the Altcoin Basket Bleed on Bitcoin’s Down-Days

What’s Solid, What’s Soft

Disclaimer

We’re short Ethereum with a target of $1.4K – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 38

The four-coin cross-section: Solana carries the desk's only negative gap this week

TOTAL3ES — This week, Alts outside Ethereum stopped paying the Altcoin Tax

On our use of AI:

Solana has fallen harder than Bitcoin for 18 straight days

Ethereum's Outperform run is 75 days old against a median of four and a half

XRP outran Bitcoin into the Clarity Act vote and Hayloo sold into the run

What’s solid, what’s soft

Disclaimer

Ether’s Upside Is Draining Faster Than Its Downside - Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 37

Dear Subscriber,

On our use of AI:

The Cross-Section

Ether Has Held This Tag Fifteen Times Longer Than It Usually Does

XRP’s Edge Has a Maturity Date

Solana Is Failing on Bitcoin’s Up-Days

The TOTAL3ES Basket Is Thirty-Five Days on the Wrong Side

What’s Solid, What’s Soft

Disclaimer

Solana Crossed to Our Short Side of the Trade – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 36

The cross-section spread out.

Solana crossed , and it is the coin we are short.

XRP is top of the board and underwater on its own chain.

The TOTAL3ES basket’s gap reopened.

On our use of AI:

Ether still catches more than it hands back.

Bitcoin is taking share back.

Disclaimer

XRP and SOL Ran to the Top and We Sold – Hayloo’s Altcoin Tax Week 35

Bitcoin paid a hefty Tax on XRP this week

For six sessions, XRP took 183cents on Bitcoin’s green days, and only gave back 80 cents on red ones.

On our use of AI:

Ethereum

Ethereum’s beta came back down to 1.35 from 1.54, with capture of 150 cents up against 109 down, and its outperform run is 54 days old against a four-and-a-half-day median.

Solana

Solana’s beta sits at 1.06. It catches 97 cents of every dollar Bitcoin gains and gives back 91 on red days. Five weeks ago those numbers were 122 and 76 — a 46-cent edge, now down to six.

Last week Solana was still the clear beta outperformer. That asymmetry closed out in this week’s rally.

The beta read pushed us to close the long we carry against the short book, and we moved a tad early. This week’s read lets us sleep with both eyes closed.

Total3ES

The basket of altcoins without ETH or stablecoins sits at 0.84, catching 72 cents up and giving back 75 down, which is roughly par in both directions.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin keeps paying the majors – Hayloo’s Alt Tax Week 34

On our use of AI:

Disclaimer

The Alt Tax – Reshuffeling after CLARITY is unclear

TOTAL3ES – This week was brutal

On our use of AI:

Disclaimer

Solana keeps amplifying Bitcoin– Hayloo's Alt Tax Week 32

XRP — every signal moved

SOL — 1.7 times more upside than downside

ETH — the fast window pulled away

By the end of this week, there will be a
— PAYWALL —
below this box.

If you subscribe today,
we will grandfather your subscription
to “forever free”
before we shut the door.

In a week from now, there will be a
— PAYWALL —
below this box.

If you subscribe today,
we will grandfather your subscription
to “forever free” before we shut the door.

_{The heresies}Four things everyone got wrong

_{The Math · 01}
What beta actually is

_{The machine}
How you find a regime without guessing

_{The Math · 02}
Finding the regimes, with a miser for a judge

_{The brake}This is only the beginning, and we say so, out loud

_{The Math · 03}How much to trust it

_{The refusal}
The number they will never give you

_{The Math · 04}The only thing close to a warning — and the dominance ghost